One thing that was just coming to mind, based on our insane blowouts this season.
Analytically, itās almost like we have two different puzzles to solve.
How can we get better with the pieces we have. I think @Cuts_from_The_Corner stuff is great at this. Donāt always agree but itās breaking down how to maximize our pieces.
How do we stop us from collectively spiraling when we get down and a few things donāt go our way.
Number 1 is about how do you make the Tech game closer than an 8-10 point loss. Number 2 is about how do you stop the gap opening from 8-10 points to a 35 point loss.
Honestly, based on what Iāve watched and HGNās reflections last night, I just donāt know how much you can do about number 2 (besides what Iāll say below). A lot of the recommendations people are sharing today are trying to solve for number 2, but itās like putting a bandaid on an amputation.
I think you have to keep at the number 1 recommendations because it might prevent us from getting to the point of spiraling, but recognizing that the spiraling will probably still happen some games because of our inexperience, lack of resilience and dawg-edness. And that once itās spiraling, no amount of bandaids are going to bring our limb back or stop the bleeding.
Down to 50th in NET this morning. Dropped about 20 spots in 3 games (want to say we were 31st heading into Pitt but might be off by a couple spots either direction)
Iād have to re-run those! But theyāll be skewed a bit by having Bond and Gertrude get more run in 2 of 5 games (Louisville and Miami) because of the blowouts.
Also, Minor played only 9 mins vs. Louisville (combo of foul trouble and blowouts).
To add: at home, weāre a net -6 in intentional fouls to put the opponents at the line in end-of-game situations (4 by VPI, 2 by NCS, 2 by Wake, 2 by us vs. Pitt). On the road, itās -7 (1 by GT, 2 by Clemson, 4 by FSU). So really the foul disparity ā taking away the EOG intentionals ā is:
Iāve seen some writing off of next year already which Iām not nearly ready to do. Obviously you donāt do that before you know what the roster will look like, but there are a few scenarios to play out that could factor in to how good we will be:
No additional attrition besides Beekman, Dunn, Groves, and Minor (unless Harris wants to explore other options that might be best for all parties). We could return 7 players who got varying degrees of PT next year plus 2 redshirts (compared to 3 transfers in last offseason and having to play a freshman 5 regular minutes).
Really, and I mean really, nail the transfer spot at the 4. Iām talking a stretch 4 option with proven production. As valuable as Dunn is defensively, I think we seriously understate how harmful his poor shooting/finishing has been to our offense as a whole. A solid offensive piece here who can stretch the defense should have more positive net impact to our team in my opinion (also only working in one transfer to major PT should help continuity as well). I consider Dunn as good as gone in my projection of this offseason, so I just hope we find out quickly one way or the other.
Taking the next step. Will McKneely take a big jump from year 2 to year 3? Heās already a very solid player. I think heās got another gear and makes an all-ACC team next year. Then, I think you really need Buchanan to take a step forward (bullish), Rohde to improve his shooting (bearish at present), and at minimum 1 of Bond or Gertrude to take a leap and grab a lot of the up for grabs minutes left by Beekmanās departure (slightly bullish - money is on Gertrude)
Ahead of schedule. Need Bliss to be day 1 ready and really push Harris out of the starting role. Cofie to be ready for backup big minutes (like Buchanan this year). Ditto ARob. Iām fairly bullish on these points but itās asking a lot of Bliss in particular. So thankful he reclassed though.
Then you gotta mix in all sorts of questions about how Tony will respond to this season. Will he adjust if weāre looking at yet another year with no NCAAT wins? Will he realize that Harris isnāt an ACC starting level PG and have the tough conversations? Will he look at this roster and really do what needs to be done to round it out in the offseason?
I was hopeful that this year, while producing a number of ups and downs, would also give us a much clearer picture of the future. Instead, I look at next year and on the one hand see the makings of what could be a strong core, but also donāt see nearly as much evidence as Iād hoped to say this with any sort of confidence.
Also, sorry to potentially derail the thread into discussing next season while weāre currently in a battle to make the tournament haha. But I have to do whatever I can to avoid talking about last night
Sounds about right. I updated my bracket yesterday and I had us as the last 8 seed. Last night should have resulted in a fall of 4-6 spots.
This is how I see it playing out with lots of assumptions made and caveats.
If we lose out, we are likely 4th/5th/6th team out heading into the ACCT. At that point a run to the championship game is the only option and even then it will be tough as the committee varies year to year how much importance they put on conference tournament results, see Texas A&M 2 years ago.
If we lose out but beat GT. I THINK we would be either last team or two in, or first team or two out. Meaning we would likely have to pick up at least one quality win at the ACC tournament (beating a top 100 team) to have a shot, two quality wins likely gets us in.
Beat BC and GT. Assuming we dont get absolutely annihilated again by UNC or Duke, I think this scenario would likely have us 4/5/6 teams in. Meaning we have to avoid a bad loss at the ACC tournament and hope there is no widespread chaso/bid stealers.
Beat Duke or UNC and GT. I think we would likely be more like 7/8 teams in heading into the ACC tournament and likely safe even if we lost the BC game.
Hmmm itās interesting that when Blake has āgrowthā that he gets more playing time, but others get *long leashes when there is no growth, and secondly when we find a good formula such as playing Groves, Dunn and a big together we go away from that.
As someone who attends BYU, I can attest to how massive continuity is. BYU last year finished 5th in the WCC going 9-6 in conference. Thatās awful. Now theyāre a tournament team thatās 6-6 in B12. What did they do to have such a turnaround? They added one transfer and kept everyone who wasnāt a senior. And no, there arenāt any freshmen in the rotation. Most fans(including me) were grumbling about running back the same team. This strategy of keeping everyone together has led a team from the middle of the WCC and missing the NIT to a 5-7 seeded tournament team thatās competing night in and night out in the best conference in CBB.
Moral of the story: running it back with these guys isnāt the worst thing. Especially with a coach whoās MO is developing guys and thriving with continuity.
Thereās hope. Things could turn around quick. Not gonna punt on next year at all. But weāre really going to need minimal turnover. I also have some hope that Dunn stays, but thatās because a man can dreamā¦ i also think the willing to walk on story shows the kind of attitude and buy in Dunnās camps hasā¦ but I digress.
Really good points. We have to retain who we have and rely on development to be successful. A stopgap, plug and play transfer if Dunn leaves is the only outside help I would want, unless there was additional, unexpected attrition.
My biggest concern is PG play. Bliss being ready to take minutes from Harris is massively important because Harris limits what we can do barring major improvements shooting-wise from Rohde, Gertrude, and Bond.
āGet old, stay oldā is cliche in college sports for a reason. No less true in the transfer era than it was before. Maybe moreso, if thatās a homegrown āold.ā
I mean it also helps to just be really good. Trey Murphy, Ryan Dunn defensively. Immediate impacts.
We were old stay old in 2023 and outside a strong november coming off the extra euro trip practice, we kinda sucked. Did show a nice spurt in the acc tourney with kadin back and then sucked again vs furman.
