Right. And we looked good beating them. Those are teams you beat if you are a tourney team.
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Rewatching the NC St game, and while I am a general ally of the @Hooandtrue ban the doubles and hard hedges movement, or at least a neutral party, NC St had a few possessions in mid-1H where we play straight up vs Burns and he gets a near miss** (with a good follow), a barely contested layup, and then a layup plus and-1 (where he misses the FT). And then in the next possession, we double Burns on the 3-point line and we very nearly get a pick 6 the other way, or a charge on Burns. (But instead we lost it OOB, leading to the heave 3 we all remember)
While the doubles eventually led to some open threes, and that was obviously bad, we also didnāt get to run the alternative history where DJ burns got to practice his layups all afternoon, along with a few foul shots.
** maybe the missed layup was that Mineola lax bro d-bag, whoās probably actually a fine young man who opens doors for the elderly and donates to canned food drives. But anyway, F him.
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Yeah I think weāve been more doom and gloom about our tourney chances than the realityā¦. I think itās simple. If we improve, weāll make it as a lower seed(7-11ish). If we donāt, weāre an NIT team.
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Vibe check:
- Make the NCAA tourney this year
- Miss the NCAA tourney this year
0
voters
I still think we find a way to make it. Thatās what my heart is telling me.
Could see us losing Saturday but then going on a long win streak starting with a confidence building win at home against our rival. Lose to the Hokies and the season is over though and itās a bad night to be a remote in my household.
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I think Iām at like 55% make it. Some green shoots with finding a role for RD on offense, and iMac playing better in the past couple.
The big man thing is gonna remain a problem barring Minor emerging or Blake taking an in season leap.
If the offense improves though, I think we can work around that. Can the offense improve? 55% chance. HanePom.
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Afraid not. Weāll maybe hit 19/20 wins, but donāt think we beat any of the top teams. That wonāt cut it
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I tend to agree @HoozGotNext that it could click quickly and once it does, I think we will find consistency and be a tough out. We havent done significant damage to our resume yet, only one bad loss, hopefully ND can make it into the NET top 135, then it would be Q2, (currently 158).
I actually saw some good things vs NCSU, esp in the 1st half, but I am optimistic it will click sooner than later, we have seen it with TB teams before. Even in 13-14, after the Tenn game I thought we were NIT bound, but the FSU game came completely out of nowhere and then we were dominant. The 19-20 team looked dead in the water after losing 4 of 5 and sitting 12-6 after a homecourt loss to NCSU., then when on to win 11 of 12 starting with an OT win at Wake. Even the 21-22 team, which yes missed the tourny, was a completely different team from late January to the end of the year and would have made the tournament that year if not for the losses to Navy/JMU early in the year.
So there is precedent for a turnaround and with the little damage we have done to our resume, we have plenty of time to add quality wins to it. I think the key is to not pick up any bad losses the next couple of weeks. @ GT right now would be quad 3 as GT is 137 in the NET, but they could be back in the top 135 if they beat us, so still may not be a bad loss. @ UL and home to ND are games we really cant afford to lose. After that, the last 10 are tough but dont offer many chances for Q3+ losses other than the final game vs GT at home. Steady the ship the next couple of weeks, avoid bad losses, and hopefully it is clickig for a run in February.
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Starts with looking respectable against Wake Forest. I can handle a loss but really canāt get blown out of the gym again - show improvement. Then weāve got a favorable stretch of games where our road opponents are good matchups.
- Virginia Tech at home scares me because they have good shooters, but they are atrocious on the road. And they are wholly dependent on Pedulla to generate offense so I like having Reece to make his life miserable
- Georgia Tech on the road is a gotta have it game. On paper that should be a managable matchup but theyāre capable of playing really well (see Duke game)
- NC State at home. Key word āHomeā so I like our chances as long as Tony doesnāt send a million post doubles on Burns
Then we have Louisville on the road (must win) and Notre Dame at home (must win). I think we whoop ND at home for revenge. Louisville game I just donāt know - ask me again in a week.
Carry a win streak into Clemson on the road! This is totally against the one game at a time mindset I should be taking but fun to speculate. Win at Wake and the season takes a much different outlook
Halfway through the season, I will fully admit that I was so so wrong about Rohde (at least for this season)
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Heās going to break out one of these games and hit 3-5 threes - just watch. He has shot poorly this season, but his mechanics and, more importantly, his shot balance are both good and his percentages should improve. One suggestion - he needs to get to the line more frequently and contribute there - only 10 FT attempts this year. It will also help him when Dante comes back as he will likely play fewer minutes and have fewer ball-handling responsibilities. Rooting for the kid and hoping it comes sooner rather than later.
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I hope youāre right! I was super impressed my his film from last year, but thereās a reason Iām not a professional scout lol
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Yeah, other than usage, thatās his major change from the Tommies. He drew a lot of fouls, albeit less against their top competition.
Feels like thatās partly (1) athleticism change at this level, and (2) the change in how we use him. Tommies used him off ball screens and off DHO and we donāt seem to use him enough going to the basket off an action.
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Wow, up to 57% āmissā at this point. 
Relevant
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Is there any direct correlation between us getting better at rebounding and being less disruptive on D (generating live ball turnovers / blocks and steals)?
Iām sick and canāt look into the stats. But thatās been my general sense the last string of games.
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You can chart game-level stats on Torvik here: Verifying Browser...
So if you select Virginia and put opponent OReb% on one axis and forced TO rate on the other, that should get at this. Eyeballing it, it seems like our better defensive rebounding games have also been our worse TO-forcing games.
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Apologies to @hoopsandhoos , my own stock up / stock down:
Check-in on UVa internet fandom stock report, including some UVa twitter, message boards (here and the Sabre), and Brad Franklinās podcast:
- Vibes (very
) - Importance of screens (very very
)
Check in on my own UVa fandom stock, negative version:
- āWe can get by without a true bigā (
) - āI trust Tony to find something that works offensivelyā ()
Check in on the things I started this thread with:
- We got more pros than all but one or two teams on our schedule (still
) - We got really talented young dudes who are showing flashes of that talent ()
Iām a bit puzzled by the blowouts to bad teams and decent teams and ājust okayā teams. But I still think thereās a chance (maybe small) that they become aberrations.
Iām not usually this guy, but nobody seems to want to be this guy right now, so Iāll be this guy: we knew this season would involve some ups and downs and inconsistencies, and that the good outcome would be if this team gelled by March, and I think we all thought weād see something more like a linear process, but life doesnāt work like that, and this team could still be a problem (in the 
meaning of the word) come the tourney(s).
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Great post - agree down the line. Glass is still half full and I k ew there would be bumps and ups/downs (just not that the downs would be 16-20 point margins)
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