This is a matchup we simply gotta win. On paper it plays right into our strengths
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Does 12-8 ACC get us to the bubble? Probably depends on the details. That means 9-5 in remaining ACC games, with 7 home and and 7 away games left.
One path to that is sweep the home (including UNc) and nab 2 on the road. @Gt and @BC seem like the best candidates…
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12-8 is realistic. Is it enough? No idea…maybe? probably not?
Impossible to say
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Yeah, and I guess to your original thought/quesrion: is it a must win? Well, every winnable game that we lose at this point makes our narrow path even more narrow.
Tangent - will have to look around and see if there’s a decent Stiudamire primer
The problem is it’s not just our record that’s hurting us, it’s the way we’ve lost our games. So, I think we need to get to 13-7 to have a shot, and it would help to have a few blowout wins and no blowout losses.
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Good point. Metrics are bad, so may have to pile up some close ones
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conversely Our blowout losses help our opponents metrics so the quad records look better lol.
I think 12-8 and one in the ACCT is probably in. We did enough in the noncon and the ACC has a really deep middle this year which helps a bunch.
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Relevant to the tourney convo: relatively few Q1 opportunities left
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Woof.
So currently 0-4 in Q1 opportunities. We’re also 0-4 on the road.
We have 4 Q1 opportunities left. VT, Clemson, Duke away. UNC at home.
Not even looking at our remaining Q2/Q3 games, feels like we need to go 3-1 in remaining Q1 to have a tourney resume.
4 Likes
Getting Florida to top 50 and A&M to top 30 would be huge
9 Likes
Florida should rise they’re getting back to full strength… A&M has been a mess they’re a really good team when healthy but it seems like every time I check in on them someone is out.
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“building for a two-year cycle, maybe longer”
(emphasis mine)
Unc at home is a massive opportunity. I think that plus one of Duke/Clemson is the sweet spot (especially if it’s Duke). If no UNC win, things get really tricky.
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If we are a bubble team, I expect we will be hearing a lot about bad losses on our resume. It’s a steep climb to make the tourney this year. (On the plus side we are looking much better to at least get an NIT bid). I hope we pull it out because that would mean we go into March with a lot of good games to cleanse the palate of December/January.
1 Like
I think margin of victory or defeat will factor into NET but not sure that isolated on its own. Is it? So blowouts to Memphis, Wake and NC State all equal the same (although could bite us if it comes to head-to-head resume review?).
In terms of bad losses, we just have the one Q3 loss. Everything else is Q1 (at the moment).
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Don’t forget the ND beat-down in South Bend…
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Damn Hav why you gotta remind me
MOV is not a standalone factor in NET anymore, but it obviously affects your efficiency metrics (KenPom, BPI, sorta the NET). But right now, our efficiency based metrics and our results based metrics (KPI, SOR) are all basically the same. NET is 57. Avg efficiency is 57. Avg. results is 58.5.
MOV doesn’t affect the quads, but right now, we’ve lost all our Q1 wins, and only have 4 opportunities left. (all of which can and will change, and change again).
Here is our teamsheet - scroll down to 57
1 Like
Absolutely. Reminds me of when college football teams are happy to go 6-6 with a young team because of the extra bowl practices.
4 Likes
Kirk Penney for OC in 24-25 
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