15 wins at the absolute max for this group. But I know things could/will look a lot different
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Option 3. Are you already mad?
Good stuff. Do you think these are possible within the stuff we already run? Would an intentional push by the coaches streamlining some of these messages, could we achieve this?
At minimum youād probably a need few new sets that intentionally lean into these ideas.
Whatever new things we add, it does feel like decent chunk is cultural / psychological. So we also have to solve for those elements.
If I had to frame it as a question: how do coaches create an offensive environment where the team does not feel like they need to āgo through the motionsā early in the shot clock?
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It might help if the team practiced offense lol
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Because Duke keeps poaching them at the last second.
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The same way we currently prioritize low turnover rate. The enforcement mechanism isnāt a great mystery. Bench guys who pass up open shots. This is very common in college hoops.
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There are plenty of low-possession, defense first teams that manage to run decent offenses, Houston being the most salient example.
But I agree, especially with Number 3. It has started to feel like weāre running an offense designed to force a low-possession game rather than one designed to score points efficiently. Iād love to see us run some purposeful offense for the entirety of a possession.
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It feels like recently we are being slow for the sake of being slow because itās somehow our identity. Where the slowness originated from trying to be efficient.
We donāt need to be dead last in pace.
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I think there is a teaching point aspect that needs rethinking. Or maybe a doctrine, if you will. I donāt know what their doctrine is, but my guesses would be that it includes things like:
- An emphasis on patience, so they even if they pass up a good shot, they believe that eventually the defense will make a mistake and give up a great shot.
- Along with that, encouragement to not take too many early shot clock risks, especially when they donāt have good floor balance that will prevent transition opportunities.
- Only running in transition in wide open situations.
Thereās probably other ones that people can come up with. These arenāt necessarily good or bad, but I think over and above the schemes we run, we do teach players to approach offense in a particular way, and that also needs a rethink.
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A quibble: Houstonās offense can look putrid too because they play with two non-shooters constantly, but they compensate by crashing the boards very hard on offense.
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Woof! This team (#73) was almost as bad as Tonyās first year (#76). I doubt that team would have fared as badly yesterday either!
It is amazing that CTB has been able to take teams that are predictively as bad as his 5-11 first year and go 12-8 in 2022 and 13-7 this year.
We are regular season kings, which I honestly mean as a compliment. It would be nice to be postseason kings too, but a lot of teams would kill for our regular season success.
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A lot will depend on the feedback players receive in their postseason meetings with Bennett. Frankly, itās in his interest to free up space.
This is where @Hooandtrue can pitch a consultancy service for:
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āHey Coach. You said you wanted to meet at the Greyhound station at exactly 9:05 am?ā
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This is great. Iām miserable, and when Iām miserable I go into problem solving mode. So thanks for endearing me here.
Reading through these posts, Iāll share a theory. I donāt know how much I believe in it but curious what others think.
Our offense now (broadly defined) is fine when you have 1) a certain level of talent 2) relative certainty with the rotation (at least top 6).
When you have that, the guys feel comfortable enough being assertive and not yanked, the talent is there to get good looks within the few schemes. The wrinkles we add are fine-tuned to specialists (thinking elevator plays with Guy).
When you have less certainty with 1) quality of talent, 2) rotation is more open, the types of offense we run and the āteaching pointsā that @AdventiveQuasar are problematic. Guys freeze up. They get decent looks when aggressive, but arenāt always aggressive, and the decent looks arenāt diverse or good enough for the level of talent we have.
The issue is the coaches have not adapted the teaching principles, some schemes and actions, and cultural stuff to the level of talent and retention we have. Part of that is understandable: you donāt fully know what you got until the season started. And you always hope for things to click as the season goes.
But if you have more tricks up your sleeve, and when you recognize where the team is, adapt accordingly.
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We can at least afford an Amtrak ticket for Dante - donāt need to relegate him to the bus
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Yeah, honestly at this point, Iām not too concerned with how an offense looks but rather how well it generates points. If they score those points by crashing boards, then great! And they manage to do it while keeping possessions low AND (Iām assuming) limiting transition points, wtf are we waiting for?
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Argh.
Saw the Seth Davis compliments toward CTB and just read Brennanās piece this morning with a long bit on UVA. Everyoneās being so nice and Iām hating it. Yeah, even Davis respects the hell out of CTB and probably likes him personally and Brennan has loved UVA forever, so why wouldnāt they say nice things?
My issue is that what theyāre really saying is: āStop being mean to the nice kid everyone is beating up!ā This is pity. In sports, you donāt need pity if youāre good. You need pity when people like you, but youāre bad. Iād rather be good and disliked than bad and pitied.
I get thatās probably the future when CTB retires (and, to state the unhappy obvious fact, its the present as well), Iām just going on the record that I donāt enjoy it.
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The last two off-seasons, I did a fan survey. How did we do for 23-24 guesses?
You can see the 23-24 (and 22-23) guesses on this Google Doc: UVA Fan Expectations 23-24 - Google Docs
ACC Record: Predicted 15-5, Actual 13-7
2024 NCAAT 5% said weād lose in First Four or First Round and S16 was most popular guess
2025 NCAAT Bimodal guesses with S16 and F4 most popular. I donāt think they would be right now.
2026 NCAAT E8. Who knows who will be on the team then?
Kenpom O Predicted #42, Actual #211
Kenpom D Predicted #21, Actual #7
Most starts other than Reece and IMAC Predicted: Dunn, Minor, Rohde. CORRECT with Groves (15) just behind Minor (18)
Who will be in the rotation, defined as playing 20% of team minutes?
This one was tricky. I had to give an objective measure of whoās in the rotation, and it didnāt quite capture reality. Since the 18-19 season, we always had 7 or 8 players meet this threshold of 20%. This year, it was 10. All the scholarship players except Gertrude. Only 8 players were predicted by more than 50% of fans with Buchanan, Gertrude, and Murray all under 50% of fan guesses. Buchanan and Murray made 20% fairly easily. Murray was out of the rotation at times, but closed with 22-29 minutes in his last four games and his first two career starts. Bond made the 20% cutoff (21.4%) but was clearly out of the rotation for most of the season, logging 18 total minutes in the last 14 games.
IMAC postseason award 2nd team all ACC was the most common prediction, 9% were right that he would get no recognition not even Honorable Mention
Beekman postseason award Beeks was overwhelmingly picked for 1st Team ACC, and we were right, he should have been (technically we were wrong and he got 2nd team)
Othersā postseason awards85% said Dunn would get some ACC recognition and he did (Honorable Mention and All-Defensive). Over 30% said Minor would and over 10% said Rohde would, and they wereā¦uhā¦wrong.
Who on the roster will ever win 1st or 2nd team ACC at UVA? 80+% were right that Reece would. 70+% that said Dunn, which looks unlikely since heās probably gone, and even if he comes back, he is SO far away from winning an award that tilts toward offense. Almost 90% said McKneely and 65% said Gertrude. Those are TBD.
Leading scorer? McKneely was the top pick, but Reece edged him by 2 ppg and about 80 on the season.
Leading rebounder? The overwhelming choice was Minor, but we were not even close. Rebound totals: Dunn 235, Beekman 124, BB 107, Minor 100. Dunn more than doubled everyone. Embarrassingly for Minor, his DR% of 13.6% was so low that it was worse than Harrisās.
CTB coaches until The consensus was 2031. TBD
J-Will next UVA coach? 58% guessed yes and 42% guessed no. TBD
Harris minutes 15-19.9 minutes per game was the consensus. His actual MPG was 13.8. Of course he missed 10 games with injury, so he only ended the season with 24% of available minutes which is 9.6 per 40 minutes of game time this season.
92% said Robinson would redshirt and he did
Which freshmen will get the most minutes? Predictions: Bond 63% v Buchanan 28% v Gertrude 9% v Robinson 0%. Actual, Buchanan (37.1% of team minutes) won easily over Bond (21.4% of team minutes)
Will Bond would play more at 3-Mover or 4-Blocker? The guesses were 55% to 45% that heād be more of a 3-Mover. I donāt know what actually happened. You tell me.
Highest 3P% (only listed players and I didnāt list Groves) IMAC vs Harris vs Beekman vs Murray vs Rohde. Unsurprisingly 86% of us picked IMAC. Surprisingly Murray edged IMAC 45% to 44.5%. Both were edged by Groves at 45.9%
Minor 2P% Predicted 54%, Actual 47.4%
More minutes for Buchanan or Groves? 60% said Groves. Correct (50.3% of minutes to 37.1%)
More minutes for Murray or Bond? 87% said Bond. Wrong (32.3% of minutes to 21.4%). Bond had 18 total minutes in last 14 games. Taine exceeded that 6 times in a single game in the same stretch including 22-29 minutes in the last four games and his first ever two starts in the last two games.
What percentage of shots will Dunn take when on the floor? Predicted: 16% of shots. Correct! (16.3%)
How many threes will Dunn make? Predicted: 18. Wrong 7-35 (regression from 5-16 in 22-23)
Will Dunn declare for and stay in the 2024 draft? 62% said yes, I put the odds at 20% back then. TBD but I think more than 62% would say yes now.
Finally letās close with a fun one to be wrong about.
What will Beekmanās Assist Rate Be (percentage of made UVA FGs that he assists when on the floor)? Prediction 35%, which would have put him 19th nationally. Actual: 44.8%, 1st nationally!
In two years of doing this, one clear pattern is that we consistently overestimate individual player awards (probably the same way that broadcasters overestimate a teamās NCAA chances in Champ Week). Otherwise, I think we are wrong mostly in random directions, and right about a good chunk of things. Iāll put up a stay/go survey soon.
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Seth Davis did say that this year was a rebuilding year for UVA and that they had lost 4-5 starters from the team before. He was surprised they did as well as they did.
There was that piece.
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