Reasonable reaction from Seth, probably much more reasonable than my thoughts right now, but I fail to see how weāll be a good team next season with just 1 or 2 portal guys. I guess if both guys are All ACC then maybe we could be
1 Like
Thatās true, but Davisās assessment wasnāt really right. This year was a rebuilding year, but weāre also probably losing ~3 starters again (Beekman, Dunn, and Minor + Groves collectively started 33 games), meaning next year is also going to be a rebuilding year.
Four questions only on who will be on the team next year and who you want on the team:
Please take 1 minute and answer now!
Like last offseason, I will do the stay/go survey now and then the expectations survey once we know who is actually on the team.
2 Likes
The competition has changed dramatically.
We used to have a deficiency (relative talent to UNC/Duke/etc.) but an advantage (age/experience in college). That advantage is now gone as many teams are buying and keeping better talent for longer.
A quick back of the envelope.
UNCās starting five players have a total of 18 years playing college basketball and 12 at UNC (2 of their starters are transfers)
Dukeās starting five have a total of 11 years playing and 11 years at Duke (0 transfers)
UVA starters (including Beeks / Imac / Dunn / Groves / Rohde) have 15 and 10 (with 2 transfers). If you switch out Taine for Rohde, itās 16 and 12 years with 1 transfer. If you switch out Buchanan for Groves, the numbers are 11 and 10.
NC Stateās starting five have a total of 22 years playing in college and only 8 at NC State (all 5 are transfers).
I havenāt look at it but Iām guessing it was far more lopsided before NIL. The way we challenged better talent was with an older, more experienced team.
NIL has eliminated a key advantage we had which was an older team. A younger team + lower level of talent is a killer. It is a strategic tool being used by other teams to gain an advantage.
We need better talent and/or more experience. The more experience helps a lot with early season out-of-conference play too. In our run up to the Natty, it seemed we were always significantly older and so we started the season more connected. Other teams improved more over the season, but it gave us an advantage in the first half of the season as other teams were figuring it out. But as more of our competitive teams buy experience and keep their own players longer, we are really struggling.
We need to back up a Brinks truck!
7 Likes
1 Like
Thatās where I divergeā¦ Tony always seemed to have a strategy but now they seem lost. Are they a development program? Yes, then take players and play the players you want to develop.
Right now, thereās this weird limbo thing where they want to win RIGHT NOW with these 1 year transfers instead of developing players but they want to be a development program.
You canāt have it both ways.
6 Likes
Hopefully @palmtreehoo is correct and the direction is Tony going all in with NIL
1 Like
You can have it both ways. Take 2-3 year left transfer but get the talented/high ceiling ones.
1 Like
Last off-season, CTB said that theyāre building for the out years, 2024-2025 and 2025-2026.
Overall, I think the āget old, stay oldā approach is the best one for this UVA staff to (continue to) take, but the transfer rules seemingly make it so much harder to accomplish.
3 Likes
I am not the only one saying thisā¦
From Trillyās discordā¦Iād imagine the meeting heās referring to is the one @palmtreehoo mentioned last week
[/quote]
2 Likes
Yeah they did that with Harris / Rohde but now theyāre basically just taking up space.
Think you missed the ātalented/high ceilingā part lol.
Rohde was 32% from 3, we all overlooked it a little too much. Dante no one was thrilled about. Still so weird and a sign of things to come.
1 Like
The one question I have is, however you want to classify our offensive scheme/sets they worked in the 2010s during our 6 year run.
But now they dont.
So other than players, did something change? Do defenses play it better? Did we change something scheme wise, or is it just not having the talent to run it well?
If it is just talent/players, then you upgrade the players and dont change much. If adjustments have been made to neutralize our approach then you change the approach.
2 Likes
Admit our mistake and cut bait. Sorry guys, itās a new world, you guys are pros now with the ability to leave anytime you want/receive a better offer. That is fair and just, but unfortunately you didnāt earn your keep so weāre going to have to cut you lose and free up the resources for a better prospect. Thanks for your hard work and let us know if you need a reference. Obviously Tony can phrase it much nicer, but unless he becomes ruthless in his decisions (and makes changes to our outdated offensive scheme), we arenāt going to be as competitive as we were in his heyday. Itās got to be a year by year thing, and our schemes need to be adjusted so they can be picked up quickly. We need to use NIL aggressively to attract immediately playable talent (high school and transfer) and then to retain proven talent once we have it, as we wonāt be successful without 60% or so continuity from year to year.
2 Likes
Maybe this has been discussed and I missed it. And maybe there are legal issues that are over my head.
But at what point does NIL deals become more of a contractual structure? As in you transfer, and get a big NIL payout, but it comes with a 2-3 year contract. Would help with continuity and roster management. The days of these guys being college kids who can just change their minds and go somewhere else should have died when they started cashing (legal) checks.
NBA and other pro leagues, players canāt just leave after a year for a better deal if theyāre under contract.
Iām not a lawyer, but I would imagine something like that implies that the student-athlete is an employee of the university. So I guess it all depends on how the Dartmouth player union situation plays out (although Ivies are weird in that there arenāt NIL collectives).
2 Likes
This is actually changing. The recent loss of Tyler Perkins and Malik Mack in the portal is causing Ivy League schools to start collectives possibly (what ivy league fans are hearing on the discourse).
1 Like
Or they can be reserve players and earn time if they get better which isnāt a terrible option. Who is taking guys like Rohde or Dante after this season? Theyād have to go down to the mid-major level. We need to bring in a legit scoring guard and at least 3 guys who play the 3-4. The best that our money can buy us. If people transfer because of it then go find more backfills
Problem is, theyāll still be using NIL resources. And, given the hit rate is nowhere near 100% on anyone new we bring in, theyāll be occupying a valuable space that would better be used for 1 year on the next recruit that doesnāt pan out.
Itās a new world out there. People were justifiably upset about the famous Buzz Cut, but times have changed and that is the only way for a successful program to operate. There are no victims here.
I also donāt think we need ābuzz cutsā when its a young high ceiling player who clearly will develop over a few years.
I think itās just clear that Rohde and Dante are not going to work here and it would literally be mutually beneficial for both parties to move on.
2 Likes