I think our perception that weāre a good three-point shooting team is overblown. We take a lot of three-pointers, sure, and weāve got a lot of players who can make them. But since ACC play began, weāve shot under 35% from three-point range in six games, and over 35% in three. Weāve had more conference games shooting under 30% (four) than over 40% (one).
Our players are all good but streaky. Youāve got guys like Malik who can shoot a blistering 50% over two games, and then go 0-for-8 over the next two. We rely on the odds that there will always be one hot hand in any particular game ā but that hasnāt always proven to be the case so far.
They started calling the hand checks and, at least yesterday (saw at least one egregious example from him) and Notre Dame, we got beat fairly often on straight line drives from 5 out sets without our lurking center to erase mistakes. Thatās my guess.
A few things regarding our 3pt shooting. I went back and looked at the box scores from our conference games. No fancy statistics, but I perused our shot making from deep. I think there are a handful of guys who should be shooting at high volume: Lewis, Jacari, Malik (so streaky but you have to let him shoot); lower volume but still shoot: Mallory, Tillis, and TDR. shoot on low volume: Hall and our centers. GrĆ¼nloh should shoot a couple times a game, but not 5 times.
Our percentage is very often skewed by the wrong guys shooting in the wrong games. I know Odom likes to shoot a lot of 3s, but you have to adjust based on personnel, and who is performing in any given game. We have demonstrated guys can score in different ways, so if an individual (like Malik) is just not on from 3 they should adjust and stop chucking 3s.
The right guys shooting the right shots and passing when they canāt throw it in the ocean would make us more efficient, I think. We donāt need to have everyone shooting 3s just because. Hall and Malik, in particular, have really hurt us in several games, but Malik needs to shoot. Hall going 0-8 or 0-6 doesnāt help the percentage everyone is worried about.
Iām no good at unified theories, but I think better/more scouting is how Iād expand on this point. We are seeing oposing teams use our tendencies against us a little better. E.g., ND pulling our bigs out of position (leading to worse rim protection).
Teams taking advantage of us sending so many guys to the glass by throwing baseball passes over the top.
Odom adjusts, then opposing coaches will re-adjust. Lather/rinse/repeat.
And then you put this all in a context where we donāt have any elite perimeter defenders, and we just look less good.
We get killed by fast breaks in both directions. We donāt handle them well on defense or offense. But clearly thatās just one element and not the whole story.
Yeah seem to be some effort to pull our bigs out or guards making the extra pass down low when the help comes. Saw that in the Notre Dame game. They were helped by the 3 pt aberration of course.
BC took what we gave to them in the mid range. Theyāre a weird mid range heavy team and our defensive style sorta played into their strength. We could have played tighter of course.
Iād rather get the offense back on track and let the defense follow form. Probably dating back to the SMU game it seems like we havenāt been playing as free - every bucket seems like an effort.
Former college player here (at a lower level fwiw); college basketball seasons truly are a marathon. When youāre on a good team, this is around the time of year where youāre just looking forward to March. Team defense is usually the first to get sloppy in slumps like this. The guys are exhausted and no longer have the mental momentum from the NCSU-SMU stretch.
This happens to good teams at least once a season. It doesnāt mean weāre frauds and weāve been figured out, it just means the guys hit a bit of a wall. Weāre winning through it, which matters the most. Two homes games, one against a bad team and one against a mid team with a big name on the jersey, could certainly be enough to get kicked into gear again. So much of it is mental. Theyāll be fine.
Coach mentioned 5 out defense as being an issue for us at this time. Of course, that puts Tillis on the floor a bit more which is also not great for our defense.
One theory that was always thrown out about our March struggles under Tony: he demanded defensive excellence all season long, which maximized our regular season performance. When March rolled around, other teams had another level because they could increase their effort and lock in on defense.
Of course not. Itās the coaches job to adjust play style and game plans to how the team is playing. Odom is absolutely doing that. We barely shot any threes in the second half of the BC game. Odom is doing his job. Sloppy games will happen regardless
I would love to see some zone thrown in at some point. This team in a 2-3 zone with their length could be effective. Odom recently mentioned using a zone press at Lenoir-Rhyneā¦Iād love to see that as well. I would expect to see some surprises/wrinkles added to the defense by the end of the month before we play Duke at Cameron.
Iām not very worried about our three point shooting. We have a big sample size that suggests weāre a good three point shooting team vs a small sample size that suggests we arenāt. Almost all these guys came into UVA as good shooters with multiple seasons of being good shooters. Despite what we like to say about Noahās Arc or whatever that doesnāt really change
I thought defense was fine against BC, outside of some bad fouls. If we made 4 or 5 more out of the 12ish wide open threes that we missed then Iām guessing weād all be saying that weāre back in top form. We were just cold and it put pressure on every part of our game and let BC believe they had a chance.
The best thing we can do to help 3-pt shooting is to show we can score in other ways. Every team is going to take away strengths at this point of the season, and best if you can show other strengths. I feel like Odom has a little work to do to create opportunities around the court. The offense looked unimaginative against BC, and we went to bully ball isoās and ended up with low assist rate. But I suppose that too is showing teams we have another way to win.
A lot to digest and evaluate. Statistics, box score, pace, and PER. Too much for me. We have a great coach, who on his worst day is a good coach. We have good players who on there worst day are mediocre players. You donāt get the best out of everyone on the same day. Thatās sports. Let just win our next game against Pitt on Tuesday. Stack wins. We are on the right track but we need to be better if we want to go deep in the tournament. Beat Pitt.