Yup, thereās going to be a CTE year 4 and itās the right call. Only way Iād change my mind is if Nick Saban walked the Lawn and said he wanted the job.
š Virginia at Coastal Carolina, W, 43-24, 3-1 (1-0 ACC), Saturday, 21 September 2024, 1400, ESPN+
5 Likes
I sure hope we plan to hang on to Coach E for another season. Iām impressed with what heās done to start this year.
One thing I especially appreciate is that for three straight weeks weāve come out and played like an actual prepared football team. The 6 turnoversā¦ okay woof. But over 3 games, we have only 10 penalties combined, for <100 yards. The past several years weāve been all about missed assignments, route miscommunications, special teams miscues, idiotic pre-snap penalties (10 men on the field kind of nonsense), issues with the snap itselfā¦ just so many boneheaded things. Plus the gimmicky stuff we did to try to overcome all that.
So far this year, weāre playing regular football like a regular football team. Itās so much easier to root for a team that acts like they came ready to play.
7 Likes
Iād be fine cutting bait after the season if he wins less than 5. Nothing heās shown us is above replacement level (in fact heās shown quite a bit below), and we cant afford to mess around in the face of the ACCās uncertainty. He could cost us a seat at the big kids table, and it looks like that is going to come to a head in 2030 instead of 2036 now.
5 with this schedule would be fine with me though.
Anyone worried about next years roster with so many players set to graduate? Or think with the portal weāll be okay? Could also argue older doesnāt mean better, but thatās when our lackluster (to put it gently) recruiting kills us.
2 Likes
I think the worst case scenario here is he ekes out 6-6 next year and we extend him for 3 more years of sub .500 mediocrity heading into 2028 when the next round of conference realignment decisions is going to get made. I know heās had a rough go, but the in-game coaching and recruiting arenāt really where they should be, and heās sort of floating by on the good Colandrea vibes.
Can someone lay out the case for keeping CTE? Is it just that he needs more time?
If we only win 4 games this season there is no rationale case to keep him unless itās:
Canāt afford anyone better or canāt attract anyone better.
Thatās a Virginia football special right there.
It feels like the perfect storm of possibility, naivety and good olā UVa shooting itself in the foot.
CTE is learning on the job, which is not an excuse, but it is the reality of it. In that learning curve heās made some mistakes. His in game work needs to continue to improve, recruiting needs to continue to improve. On a positive side heās done some things well. Heās taken a bunch of mid-level players and the believing and competing, thatās not easy to do especially when youāre not winning. Thatās also the main reason I remain in the hold place donāt fire just yet camp.
The program is also in that difficult position of āis it the talent? or is it the scheme, or is it both?ā I know I harp on AC a ton, but itās because I believe he is capable of better. Right now his level of play is not good enough. He has 5 TOs to 5 TDās on the year and is averaging 8 yards per completion, while completing less than 1/3 of his passes on 3rd down. Is some of that scheme? Probably, but heās also made bad decisions.
At the end of the day the answer to the question of should CTE go after this season comes down to circumstance. Whatās the money look like, and who is available? Unfortunately that leaves UVa largely in a position where they do not control their own destiny which is not ideal. But if they are going to move on then they better damn sure have a locked in sure long term plan because 3 coaches in a 6 year span is a recipe for disaster.
2 Likes
Iām a big Tony supporter but this is reality. He should be able to win at least 5. Games like Maryland are going to cost him his job if they keep happening. They are probably a better team but they were playing absolutely horribly in the first half and we let them off the hook. We get up by 2 scores and I donāt think they come back the way the defense was playing.
I could forgive those type of losses last year but this year those need to be converted to wins, especially with likely losses to Clemson/ND on the schedule.
I do worry about what kind of replacement we could realistically hire and I actually like Tony and our staff so my preference is they figure it out.
Edited to add the one coaching hire that could get me excited would be Jake Dickert. He may have bigger offers on the table though.
3 Likes
This is kind of a broader point about sports favor, but how the season plays out is almost as important as the end record.
If he hits 6 wins then fumbles the last few games, or the 6 wins seem like the opponents were much lesser than originally thought, people will feel worse than if thereās strong end of season momentum. Hoops last season highlights this pretty well.
I donāt really have a point, other than the end record is only a piece of how folks will perceive Elliottās season and future.
3 Likes
Iām not worried at all about the quality of replacement we could get. These guys donāt think like that. No one weād want is looking at 10-24 thinking they canāt do better. I have a short list of guys Iād want and think we could get, Calhoun at Air Force is at the top of it for me.
1 Like
Not being a total apologist, but:
- He was saddled with the old McCue for two years, which was an absolute millstone in recruiting
- Itās really hard to quantify the effect the shooting tragedy had on the program, but weād be remiss not to admit it didnāt have some effect
- I do wonder whose idea it was to retain 2J and Hagans, which was kind of a mini version of āFuente inherits Bud Fosterā and probably hindered the ability to truly reset the offense from Anaeās regime. Now this isnāt to say Kitchings didnāt have his own responsibility to build an offense to fit BAās style as opposed to trying to shove a square peg into a round hole skill-and-system-wise.
- All this on top of the other inherited UVA hurdles like tough academics that affect who we can recruit both in the Portal and out of HS, the stink of the VT streak, and the anemic fan/donor-support and behind-the-curve NIL offerings.
Anyways, those are some of the struggles that (a) arenāt Elliottās fault and (b) would arguably have put any other coach in the same hole.
The question to me is whether or not Elliott can get out of it, his fault or not. Perception is real, and even if itās not his fault that he had bad facilities and an unprecedented tragedy and New-Ivy-level academic barriers, etc, at some point it becomes an irrecoverable downward spiral. First the kind of recruits we need to get to turn the corner are just going to steer clear because they see things as hopeless and frankly just have better options. Second the donors who I feel are coming back are going to lose steam, and then the NIL and other money-driven things we need to be competitive start to fade again. And if thatās the case, we need to make a change just for the fresh injection of enthusiasm in both recruiting and fundraising.
9 Likes
Yeah, someone who has experience winning with lesser talent would be ideal. Weāll never have NFL talent like Clemson had when TE was OC; we need to out-scheme and develop our guys better than other teams. Similar to how CTB turned the hoops program into a winner, the system neutralized talent gaps, and they developed 3-star, gritty guys into all-ACC players.
I was thinking more about who might be on the market. I donāt see a lot of names that make a ton of sense. Calhoun is too old and too closely connected to our current staff. Heās not leaving AFA regardless.
1 Like
His tenure at UVA is essentially over if he loses this game, unless we go on to miraculously win multiple games as a big underdog later in the season.
Way too much learning on the job and trying to do things like Clemson are the two main reasons for failure in my opinion. We need an experienced head coach from the G5 level who has proven he can win to some extent. Ideally a more relatable version of Bronco who donors will support.
2 Likes
Yep.
On offense, weāre probably okay, though of course keeping guys out of the Portal is a big part. We get AC back along with some good OL (Boley & Steen at bookends is great), plus some young talent at WR, RB, and TE (where Iām cautiously optimistic about Dak Twitty). Itās not perfect, but itās okay.
Defense is scary AF. We lose by my count very worrying 12 of 22 players from our defensive 2-deep to graduation / eligibility expiration, no COVID years really left. Again, need to then retain key talent like Hammond, Britton, Kam, McDonald, etc, as well as hope guys like Buchanan and Bracey come back from injury.
The problem with the Portal strategy is that the COVID-year-eligible guys are mostly gone after this season, so the number of quality players in the Portal is going to drop significantly this upcoming season, and letās be honest, aside from a ton of PT to offer, weāre going to have a hard time winning transfer battles against SEC/B1G as well as top-half ACC teams for, again, the kind of players we need to get/stay competitive.
On the hoops side, Bennett set the roster up great for this upcoming season where we get to lean on young incumbent talent whereas our rivals will have to fight brutally in a thinned out Portal pool. Football, however, especially on the defensive side of the ball, doesnāt really have a young roster on the field this year thatās going to largely come back next year older and better.
So yeah, itās a problem awaiting us in 2-3 months.
5 Likes
I think if he just wins this year, weāre in pretty good shape. Heās done a good job building the roster and has some decent momentum with recruiting. Iād hate to have to start from scratch but if he doesnāt win soon, the blame starts to fall on him.
1 Like
Summed it up well right there. Win this year get to 5 or 6 and everything likely works itself out even with a potential mass exodus due to graduation.
As I said above my issue with firing CTE largely comes down to who is available. Thatās not in UVAās control but it absolutely has to be near the top of the list of considerations. If they identify someone they really want who can move the needle and that person is available then go get them. If itās just a list of nice to haves then stick with what you got.
That said after a 1-3 start Calhoun from Air Force might be available if youāre into that sort of move (Iām strongly against it)
1 Like
Heās getting fired after next season (if it is warranted).
I donāt think winning 6 gets him an extension this yearā¦ anyone can look at a depth chart and see the number of names thatāll have to be replaced after this season. But he canāt win less or level to what he has.
Also with the new facilities now open I think we would do better than most expect if we hired a new coach in the semi near future.
1 Like