Guess I missed the news that Tony Bennett has been coaching the Phoenix Suns for the last two seasons. Silly me.
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Look at 3P FGA and then tell me the nonsense that heās the same player
We had him sit on the perimeter and look stupid when he was passed the ball. Thatās the part thatās on Tony. Weāve had this conversation before
Go ahead and defend that if you want. But donāt pretend it doesnāt exist!
And also, the NBA is generally considered a better league than the ACC
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Look at the free throw percentage. Itās basically the same in college and the pros.
His points per game is basically the same, even in the wide-open NBA.
You want to say ppg can be a flawed stat? Ok. Letās look at Offensive Rating per 100 possessions. In college, Dunn had an O Rating of 109. In the NBA, Dunn is at 112.3.
Not saying Tony is blameless. But at a certain point, Dunn is who Dunn is: great defender, not impressive on offense.
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Not relevant to the fight at hand, but I did think Dunn would become a better catch and shoot 3P guy in the NBA than he is. The NBA has gotten pretty decent at helping these guys find their shots, and I thought he was a guaranteed decade long player if he could get to like 35%. Still time, obviously, and the defense will keep buying him chances, but Iām really rooting for him to become reliable behind the line.
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What I want to say is what I said: His 3pt FGA, even accounting for more minutes, has about tripled. If you want to ignore 3p FGA, then there is at least one HOF who shared your desire to ignore them for the last few years of his career, so youāre in good company.
TLDR - he shoots 3x as many threes; he increased his % by about 8 points, and increased his ORtg while going from a big to a wing. All while playing in the NBA. IMO, thatās a much better offensive player.
(Iāll leave this alone in this threadā¦)
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Ah, yes, Dunnās 3PT attempts per game have tripled from 1 per game in college to 3 per game in the NBA. Per 100 possessions, Dunn took 2.5 3s in college and has taken 8.2 as a pro (although this year itās down to 6.2. Curse you, Tony Bennett!)
And weāre talking about the potential gravity created by a not-that-good shooter taking a few more threes per game on what was a meh Virginia team, so youāre right, we should leave this alone.
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Silly me. I opened this thread looking for comments about our upcoming game, and apparently weāre still fighting three-year-old battles. The football team mascot is a Cavalier riding a horse. I think the mascot for this site should be a Cavalier flogging a dead horse.
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@newjerseyhoo weāve moved this discussion to a different thread
You can join us there if you want to tell us why it shouldnāt even be discussed at all.
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So back on topic - this is a battle of two teams, whose mascots ride horses into football stadiums?
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Quick FSU scout:
FSU roster/lineup:
- Hoop Explorer has McCray (super-ball dominant guard with 30% usage, 40% assist rate who isnāt the most efficient scorer) and Somerville (3PT specialist who gets steals) as their top players by impact/RAPM
- Their roster tails off after spot #6 (Steen, Magee, Wiggins, Jones all between +2 and +3 RAPM, everyone else is under +0.5); theyāve limited the rotation to 8 in their last couple of games and have excised their backup PG (Miles) and backup C (Maluk) from the rotation.
- Lineups are small; Hoop Explorer classifies the 6ā8ā Steen as the center 43% of the time, the 6ā10ā Wiggins who never gets blocks or rebounds as the center 31% of the time. The 6ā7ā Jones has center-ish stats and in the little Iāve watched heās looked more like the center in his minutes with Wiggins. All 3 of those guys all play together a bunch too, thatās their frontcourt rotation, plus a little bit of small-ball 4 minutes from Swinton.
FSU on offense:
- 3s, 3s, and more 3s (#10 or #11 3PA rate in the nation depending where you look)
- A lot of those 3s are bricks: 31.6% on 3s, #291 in nation
- They are mid-range avoiders, though their 2P shooting is not great because they donāt have much rim presence
- They want to be in transition, though they arenāt especially efficient there as they shoot a lot of transition 3s that donāt go in at high rates
- A lot of their 3s come from McCray creating looks for others
FSU defense:
- 3s, 3s, and more 3s (#313 in defensive 3pt rate)
- Rim protection is an issue with their small-ish lineup, giving up 61% on rim attempts. This is probably why they give up a lot of threes, they need to sell out to keep opponents away from the rim.
- The best thing they do on defense is create turnovers; almost everyone in their rotation has a steal rate over 2%.
- They give up a lot of transition (23rd percentile) and offensive rebounds (33%, #287) too.
Overall thoughts:
- Could be a swingy game as it should be pretty high in 3s being attempted
- Can we get our transition game going?
- TDR should be our biggest source of matchup advantage, along with Ugo-Johann offensive rebounding pressure. Thatās also a way to keep them out of transition.
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Really good analysis, Thanks!
One thing Iād add is that, while Wiggins has only been averaging 12.9 pts on the season, he has heated up in their last three games. His numbers from the last five are:
@ Miami: 10 pts, 1-2 3PT
@ SMU: 5 pts, 1-3 3PT
vs Cal: 18 pts, 3-4 3PT
vs Stanford: 23 pts, 4-11 3PT
@ ND: 22 pts, 5-10 3PT
If heās hot and pulling our rim protectors out of the paint, that could spell trouble for our defense. On the flip side, as you note, Wiggins is incredibly bad at blocking and rebounding given his size and experience. Should be someone our bigs can pick on on both the offensive and defensive glass.
This game does worry me, but we should be too much for them overall.
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This could be one I see us dropping, and Iām not usually one for doomer takes. A hot night from FSU and a cold one from us and itās finished.
That being said, if Odom adjusts the game and goes inside a ludicrous amount like we did in the 2H against ND, I think weāll win. Whether itās close or not will depend on our perimeter D. Prepare for some annoying shots from FSU, though. Theyāve been playing well.
Score prediction: 82-70 Hoos
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FSU giving out 500 free beers to the1st 500 students is one way to help pack the house
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Drunk students and a million three pointers shot against us, what could go wrong!
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Can you look at data over their last 4 games or so? Something happened and they really started clicking (relative to where they were before). Curious what changed.
(One day I will learn to use hoop explorer but every time I try it gives me a headache. Completely effed visual)
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A buzz in the building . . .
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Ugh. Spatolla
That feels like not that many?
I do like how these ESPNU tips get right into things
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Oh interesting looks like theyāre gonna try to punish the press