🏈 Virginia at North Carolina, Saturday, 25 October 2025, 1200, ACCN

[haney]

@ell

… useful in terms of standardizing information and portraying it in a way that is easily understandable

Sounds impressive!

@ell

What it isnt is impressive.

Doh! I’m wrong again. My bad.

[dave92]

@ell

Telling me Pulp Fiction is a great movie is not a groundbreaking or insightful statement and the same goes for saying OSU is an elite team and a tier above a squad like UVA despite their similar records.

Stipulated. But do you know the relative quality of literally every movie? And of every college football team? If you do, that’s pretty impressive.

[tonyburnertt]

I think Connelly would probably be fairly reasonable about this conversation and would probably surprise you by his own opinions on things. He’s not really a numbers over everything guy, he acknowledges its all pretty nuanced and I think would be the first to say SP+ is a tool not a definitive ranking. He was very pro-FSU in the playoff in 2023 over Alabama despite Alabama being higher in SP+ at the time.

What I think SP+ is very good at is separating teams in the messy middle between elite and bad from one another. This is from 2021, I’d be curious how its done since (probably a lot worse because I’d bet Vegas models have improved a lot more than Connelly’s has over time): “If you had instead chosen games in which SP+ disagrees by three to five points – games which are less likely to feature defining injuries or suspensions that SP+ doesn’t account for – you’d have won 58% of the time (55% in 2021).” That’s really really good! His model was 13 years old at the time and doing pretty well against Vegas if you used it with some discretion!

I also think his work broken down at the offense-defense-special teams level and published each week is pretty useful for historical purposes and arguments on message boards like this! It is nice to be able to look through and see where your units ranked in a given year and how you’ve progressed over the season.

It’s a model from 2008 that he hasn’t changed much, so I think it is fairly impressive for what it is 17 years later. I like Kelley Ford’s ratings better- they’re much more reactive week to week and I think he does a really good job with the predictive content around it, but I still like Connelly a lot. He also writes about a lot of other things in the offseason that are pretty good. His soccer coverage is pretty solid.

[haney]

Morris kind of took a stray here in a turf war between Lombardi and unnamed UNC staffers. But hopefully he uses it as motivation.

I mean, it’s kind of mixed. The unnamed UNC staffers are implicitly praising Morris but the named Lombardi likely isn’t happy he gave some bb material to UVa, unwittingly.

[AdventiveQuasar]

@haney

I mean, it’s kind of mixed. The unnamed UNC staffers are implicitly praising Morris but the named Lombardi likely isn’t happy he gave some bb material to UVa, unwittingly.

The named Lombardi should probably be more concerned that the UNC staffers are eagerly knifing him in the back.

[haney]

Julius Caesar style. Sic Semper Toupee-is

[TheVanillaGorilla]

I clearly missed that Zach Rice transferred out of UNC and went to Syracuse of all places. What’s the story there? Seems like we would have been a natural landing spot for him.

[Hooandtrue]

Isn’t he like super undersized anyways and was way overhyped out of HS? I recall him not getting much play at all under Brown

Still cant believe he committed to UNC on 2J’s birthday

[EmbracePaceUVA]

He’s not playing at Cuse either. He’s a bust.

[HOORVA]

So I toured UNC with my HS junior yesterday. There were 3 UNC students who joined our tour part-way through, b/c they were friends with the guide. They started out with us as a joke, and then they said they were learning things, so they hung for the remainder of the time. It was entertaining, honestly, and probably a reason why my son liked the school so well (made the tour more lively & students seem more fun). Anyway, another mom asked those 3 what they don’t like about being at UNC. One said, “The football team. Every Saturday starts with a concert & so much hype & promise. But by halftime, we’re all sad & walking home.”

I was laughing that they had SO MUCH Belicheck related merch (e.g., “Chapel Bill” shirts) in the shops around campus. Can’t imagine that’s selling well

Edited: spelling

[Hooandtrue]

[ElliottHoo]

Picking what’s insightful and what’s not, and how much to weigh them relative to each other, is impressive if you do it well and not so much if you do it badly.

Telling between those outcomes is obviously the tricky part. If the good version is right 55% of the time and the bad one 45%, you need a decent sample size to tell which is which. And that assumes a flat 55/45, whereas one might be better in some conditions while the other is better at others. And what are they measuring? If one is purely looking at win/loss, while the other is trying to predict margin, how do you compare them?

[jasponti]

@HOORVA

So I toured UNC with my HS junior yesterday.

Yeah, this is the part of the story where you lost me.

[salty]

I think this will be the weekend UNC figures things out, and we will play flat and overconfident, leading to a 3-pt score differential.

[ell]

You’re right and this is all valid. I’ve quite frankly spent too much time on this board trying to articulate my beliefs and preach my philosophies. Which is unecessary because I annoy folks enough in my personal life doing that lol. think i’m gonna take myself off this board. Thank yall for the intelligent and nuanced conversations.

[ElliottHoo]

You obviously know you best, but you don’t have to go. Far more combative folks than you have been through here. The world’s a big place but there are relatively few places to have these kinds of discussions around UVA sports. You can do whatever you think is best, just… give it a minute first.

[AdventiveQuasar]

IMO the thing that makes a good post (and poster) is some openness to having your mind changed or your perspective revised, even if it is just a little and even if you still feel strongly about the thrust of your argument. Makes it more of a discussion and less two guys/gals yelling past each other.

[BDragon]

Alright enough of this cumbyya ish. This is a fan forum and we need to see some arguments and fights. Not reasonable conversation and exchange of ideas. Here’s some topics for you.

1. Bronco could never get this team to this position.
2. Khei is the greatest PG in UVA history and could start at corner for this year’s football team
3. Jay Huff should have played more in 19 and make the team better.
4. Tony Elliott needs a Cig style extension before the VT game.

[haney]

@BDragon

Bronco could never get this team to this position.

Saving all Bronco chatter for when I need to stat pad for the leaderboard

[tonyburnertt]

@BDragon

• Bronco could never get this team to this position.
• Khei is the greatest PG in UVA history and could start at corner for this year’s football team
• Jay Huff should have played more in 19 and make the team better.
• Tony Elliott needs a Cig style extension before the VT game.

1. Wrong (LaNorris Sellers would have us going undefeated with this schedule!!)
2. Wrong
3. Right
4. Wrong