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How hard of a game is this going to be for us?
Theory, and I just shared this with @Sknyluv: I think we need to win one of Louisville or SMU at home, unless we want to go to VPI with bowl eligibility on the line. The others seem pretty tough, as we sit here today (@Clem, @Pitt, @ND).
This assumes a win v UNC, which wonāt be a gimme either
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Louisville is the best team weāve played to date.
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Opening at 8? Vegas has no clue what to do with Virginia
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Iād include Pitt in that āother places to steal a winā group, even before Lville & SMU. On the road, but even at 5-0 Iām still not sure how good Pitt actually is.
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Agree Pitt might be the weakest of that group. Pitt then UofL then SMU
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Does anyone have a parking pass theyāre not using for the game? Looking to buy one now.
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Beat Louisville. Put them on a 3 game losing streak. And then remind them their basketball arena is our 2nd home.
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Pitt is a fraud. Agree with Dragon that theyāre way less scary than SMU and Louisville.
Are they definitely better than BC?
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Iād give Louisville the edge over BC but itās close. Which is what is why the opening spread was surprising to me. Keeping an eye on it, itās down to UofL -7 already down a point would not be surprised to see it drop some more before KO on Saturday.
I think Louisville is pretty comfortably better than BC. Good coach and 36th in talent composite vs. 58th. Thatās a pretty big gap talentwise, and I donāt personally see much of one in the coaching.
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FPI gives us a 25-30% chance against UL, @Pitt, SMU and @VT. About a 55% chance against UNC. About 10% @ND and @CU.
The road to bowl eligibility pretty much has to be beat UNC and steal a win in one of those 25% games.
Or beat UNC and pray our tied for 23rd ranked APR gets us one of the unfilled bowl slots.
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If Iām remembering my stats/probability correctly (big if), that puts us right at or just below an expected value of 2 wins
Of course, Iād put the odds of us winning a āwin to make a bowlā game at VPI, when thatās all they have to play for, at around the ND/Clem odds
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I was at the BC game, and while I admired the teamās persistence and tenacity (and, donāt get me wrong, those are HUGE traits that we didnāt show last year), I didnāt think we played particularly well. The difference in the game was a couple of big but somewhat flukey plays ā a batted pass that was intercepted, and a fumble that slipped out of the quarterbackās hand. It would have been just as easy to have lost by 10 points and as to win by 10.
I think weāll have to play much better to beat Lousiville. In particular, we need four quarters of the kind of pass rush we generated for only two against BC. I think our secondary will struggle against Louisvilleās receivers, especially with our injuries.
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With Greene now in the portal weāre gonna be very thin at Safety next week. Need Caleb Hardy to really step up.
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His brotherās sticking around though?
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Kelley Ford has us at an expected 5.7 wins. Itās going to be a close one.
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