Maybe if Bond is more confident/skilled with trying to get somewhere with 1-2 dribbles, his long midrange jumpers turn into shorter mid rangers, or better yet, drives. I would bet that 75% of his shots come after zero dribbles right now, which would be OK if they were threes, not so good when they are twos.
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We need to keep winning to make the tournament, which means that we cannot follow up our good win at Clemson by dropping Miami at home. I know Tony will have the guys readyā¦but I am nervous because thatās what Virginia basketball does to me!
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Spread is currently U.Va. -5.0.
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VT plays the packline?
āThe good part for us is our preparation for Virginia Tech is very similar for the University of Virginia,ā head coach Jim Larranaga said. āThey both play the pack defense and they both run a lot of motion-type offense.ā
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Well, in all fairness, Coach L doesnāt really know what defense is.
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They can put some points on the board. Seems like a game we will have to outscore them to win. What could go wrong?
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Miami is all over the place. They has 26 in the first half and 56 in the 2nd against VT Sat. They went 7-16 from 3 (most in the 2nd half) and 27-29 from the line (most in the 2nd half). They play that offensive style we love, either chuck 3s our drive and head snap.
As long as they are not super hot from 3, donāt have those BS FT numbers, and we keep Omer off the boards we should be ok. Our D will frustrate them, but all 5 guys they put on the floor will be able to drive or shot 3s (minus Omer) so weāll have to be connectedā¦as CTB would say.
Key to the game, not letting Joseph, Cleveland or George go off. I am gonna assume Reece and Dunn will keep Pack and Poplar in check
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If we get officiating like the NC State and Notre Dame home games then I think weāll win in similar fashion to those games (minus the late collapse leading to OT against State).
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I suspect Dunn will be on Cleveland.
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Agree. Two things: 1) Omier will step out and make the occasional three, though not as frequently or effectively as Hall, and 2) I think Dunn will maybe be on Cleveland, as opposed to Poplar? Poplar is a smaller guard, so perhaps IMac on him.
If we guard well we will win.
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Miami doesnāt seem to run a lot of the motion action to free up their shooters that can give us problems, like Notre Dame or VT does. Itās mostly one-on-one creation, with a lot of drives and the occasional ball screen. I think weāll be able to contest their shots ā but they might make them anyway. If itās one of those nights where everything they throw up goes down, weāll have trouble. Otherwise, I think weāve got a good shot.
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I considered that as well and while probably true, I thought Poplar b/c heās the better 3pt shooter but in hindsight Cleveland is more likely to post up/mid range in the paint. Poplar is probably the toughest cover (heās 6ā5 btw). He can elevate over or drive iMac/Rohdeā¦Bond anyone?
I do wonder if we finally inset Jake into the starting line up or donāt mess up the regiment.
Reece - Pack
iMac - Joseph
Rohde - Poplar
Dunn - Cleveland
Minor - Omer
or
Reece - Pack
iMac - Joseph
Dunn - Cleveland
Groves - Poplar
Minor - Omer
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I donāt buy it.
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Feels like a very big game if we want to make the tournament given our historical struggles in the state of Florida (@FSU this weekend). Really need to go at least 1-1 this week
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UVA Betting breakdown on OnlyPlayers:
Virginia has won six straight games and hosts Miami, while #8 Kansas (-5) heads to Kansas State for its rivalry game
https://www.onlyplayers.com/preview-cbb-double-header-on-espn-š„
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Was going to suggest adding NSFW to this until I reread the first sentence.
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I think George has been starting over Joseph now that everyone is healthy. Joseph still plays a lot, though, as their bench is very thin. My order of priority of trying to stop would be:
- Omier - clearly their best offensive player in terms of usage and efficiency
- Pack - I subscribe to the theory of trying to cut the head of the snake off in terms of disrupting opponentās primary ballhandlers
- Cleveland - You could convince me he is more important to handle than Pack; though it makes less of a difference in terms of matchups for our team (I think)
- Poplar - Having a sneaky downturn in conference play (I think he was hurt for a bit?)
- George/Joseph - Both capable players, but clearly 5th in the pecking order in the lineups where the other four are playing. Joseph is not shooting well in conference play.
So if George is the 5th starter I go:
Pack - Reece
Poplar - IMac
George - Groves/Rohde (whoever is starting)
Cleveland - Dunn
Omier - Minor
Iām not sure how much the Dunn-Groves frontcourt should play in Omierās minutes. Any time Nwoko is in, Iām going with that frontcourt, but I worry about Omier powering through Dunn.
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I was curious so I looked up the best defense that Miami has faced in conference; the best was Syracuse at #36 according to KenPom, and it was a loss. The away games they have won are VT and ND, neither of which has a ood defense in terms of adj. efficiency (regardless of Cory claiming VT is a defensive force in Saturdayās game). We currently sit at #11 and are at home, so they have not seen the kind of defensive pressure they will tonight.
If we play lock-down defense, as we are capable of, we should win. BUT there is pressure on the offense as well, given that Miami can get hot and score in bunches very quickly, even when shots are well contested. Given their allergy to defense IMac, Groves, and Reece should have some good looks from three; also good drives against them is like watching the Red Sea part, so Reece should have that option all game.
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Paint touches are going to be important. Teams shoot a ton of threes against Miami (and miss a lot; how much you attribute that to Miami is up to you) but when they get inside the arc, they have success. I donāt know why teams shoot so many threes against Miami (are they selling out to stop drives? Doubling the post and leaving kickouts open?), and you certainly need to shoot some threes to keep the driving lanes open, but I hope we put their interior defense to the test.
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Props for tonight courtesy of Sleeper. What sticks out to you all?
-Reece: 14.5 points, 2.5 boards (he hasnāt had a board in any of the last 3 games!), 6.5 assists, 1.5 3PM, 24+5 PRA
-iMac: 12.5 points, 2.5 boards, 1.5 assists, 2.5 3PM, 17.5 PRA
-Minor: 9.5 points, 5.5 boards, .5 assists, 16.5 PRA
-Dunn: 9.5 points, 7.5 boards, .5 assists, 17.5 PRA
-Omier: 14.5 points, 8.5 boards, .5 assists, 24.5 PRA
-Pack: 12.5 points, 2.5 3PM, 2.5 boards, 2.5 assists, 18.5 PRA
-Poplar: 10.5 points, 1.5 3PM, 4.5 boards, 1.5 assists, 16.5 PRA
-Cleveland: 11.5 points, .5 3PM, 5.5 boards, 1.5 assists, 18.5 PRA
Could see Minor snagging more than 5.5 boardsāheās gone 9, 6, 4, 6 his last 4 games. Also think Iām going under Woogaās PRA as heās coming off a rolled ankle on short rest. Dunnās taken a step back the last 2 games offensively. Tempted to take his under PRA as well.
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