It’s probably just because 35% is a preposterous percentage given our talent level and Tony’s track record. But you’re absolutely entitled to your opinion. You seem to take a more cautious approach than some us which I totally get.
Are you still thinking 35% after the last two games though?
After the Ft Meyers tournament there was definitely reason for concern. We got smacked by, what we assumed, was a so-so Wisconsin team, and barely held on against a bad WVU team.
But based on what we’ve seen against Florida, Tx A&M, and Syracuse, it’s more likely we just had a bad tournament. Memphis will be a good true road test.
It’s worth noting the only team to even be on the bubble in the last decade already had losses to JMU, navy, and would soon be blown out by Clemson at home. Even that team made it interesting at the end.
This team is substantially more talented and deep. Kody was our first player off the bench - yikes
“Preposterous” is an opinion. You’re welcome to it.
I would say that if the last two games is representative of how we’re going to play the rest of the season then certainly 35% would be too low. OTOH, if the way we played when we weren’t at home in the JPJ against Wiscy and a lousy WVU team is representative, NIT would be optimistic. I don’t know which team is UVA, most likely somewhere in between, not necessarily in the middle, but where on the scale between those extremes is the question.
I was not enamored with our play against NC Central and Texas Southern either. There were some good things but in general it wasn’t representative of where we need to be to make the tourney. OTOH, that’s not surprising considering all the new faces trying to blend together. So those games do require a grain of salt in evaluation.
If I reach a point this season where my mind is changed, I’ll certainly say so. The last two games are definitely an upwards trend. I still believe the trio of Gertrude, Bond, Buchanan playing now could really be helpful later in a long season.
Memphis has some physical, athletic players that could really hurt us where we’re weak, so I absolutely agree. If we play impressively in that game, it would be difficult for me not to increase our odds in my opinion.
We’d have to completely tank in ACC play to not make the tournament at this stage, assuming no unexpected losses in non con. Tony owns this conference so color me not too worried.
We’re talking about making the tournament. That’s not a high bar for UVA basketball.
We’ve had this discussion, do we really want to devolve a victory thread into this? Let’s enjoy the win, see how the season progresses. Hopefully my initial evaluation is way too pessimistic. We’ll all know in time.
This! Wiscy just beat a very good Marquette team today. They had some head scratching results but they are not bad. Plus we are going to struggle with experienced all conference bigs this year and Wisconsin had that.