I like all the individual pieces a lot but it runs into the same problem as 2019-2020. The pieces just aren’t great fits together from a floor spacing perspective. We will be starting one (!) player who is a credible threat from three next year.
If we make it past the 1st Round of the NCAAT, then it’s more successful than last year’s team. Not an incredibly high bar.
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I share your pessimism (I think it’s more realism). Maybe things mesh well, maybe we get better by midseason like 19-20 team. But that team was winning by a point or two like you stated and I’m not sure we’ll ever see a streak like that again. I just hope the people who say they are excited for a development year realize what that means. Doesn’t mean a final 4 ceiling type of year, it means hope things come together to make the tournament. We need 3-4 guys to be significantly better than last season, and healthier than last season, to make the tournament in my opinion. I know Tony will get the most out of what we have but I think the floor is much lower than any other team we’ve had since pre 2013-14 season
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I think the bigger issue is defense. Last year’s team was just not that good (I seem to remember it was the 3rd worst defense for CTB at Virginia). We couldn’t get stops which compounded the offensive challenges (and it wasn’t that bad of an offense statistically). If this team can play D more closely to the 2019-20 version, I don’t get quite as worried about offense. I think the short roster is a benefit and there may be struggles early in the season, but if the team is more cohesive in the packline, I become less worried about spacing on offense. I think (1) Kihei will be much more effective, (2) Carson may be the surprise this year and (3) I am VERY bullish on Franklin.
I am not worried about making the NCAA. Duke will be very good and with K’s last dance, they will get the benefit of everything. FSU will be FSU and UNC will probably be better than the past year or two, but I still think the conference as a whole is not that great. As we saw from 2019-20, defense travels well. I hope the writers pick us to finish lower than 4th - only way CTB can get another ACC coach of the year (K pretty much has it on lock this year), short of winning the ACC regular season, the ACC tournament, and making at least the F4..
I am starting to think we can be really good compared to expectations. If the crew stays healthy of course. We are gonna see Reece be much more assertive and do more offensively than last year. Also having some seasoned guys like Gardner and Franklin from Big 10 is gonna be huge positive.
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Don’t disagree that if Kihei and Reece cannot improve as shooting/scoring threats, we are going to have limited success, especially if the coaches insist on playing them together. I’m not assigning blame to any single player for last year’s woes. There just wasn’t much diversity and completeness in anyone’s game. Everyone seemed to do one or two things really well. Even the dopey college coaches can come up with a game plan to take away a single player strength - it’s when those players can do other things well that it makes opponents choose their poison. No one on the roster could score, pass, and defend in the ways that Hunter, Jerome, and Guy could. I just want to populate a roster with guys who can do a lot of different things, even if they don’t have elite athleticism of a top 30 guy. I think we’re getting back to that in recruiting.
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That 19/20 defense was arguably the best of the 21st century. We will potentially be better than last year once everyone gels but aren’t going to be close to that 19/20 squad defensively. 5th year Mamadi and 4th year Braxton aren’t walking through the door. We won’t need a great offense next year to make the tournament but we do need to be top 75 or so. A bad offense won’t get it done without the historically great defense on the other end.
Also ACC being down can go either way as far as tournament selection and seeding goes. Certainly hurt our seed last year.
Do you judge a season solely on the NCAAT? Seems odd to me to say 16/17 was more successful than 17/18.
Reece probably determines the entire season. Does he incrementally improve or does he take the sophomore leap we saw from London, Ty, and Kihei?
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I mean 17/18 is a pretty historic anomaly. Not quire sure how to measure that one still.
But yeah, I think success is driven by what you do at the end of the year generally. I would say Syracuse had a more successful season than us last year.
It would appear summer mbb practices (other sports also - maybe?) are limited to 8 weeks of practice. Not sure of myself but it looks like 8 hours max per week of both practice and S & C.
Apologies for the lack of confidence. Reading and comprehending regulations is not my strength by any stretch of the imagination.
If I am off topic let me know and I will shut the f up.
I don’t feel like I’m an optimist but I feel a lot better about this team than what I’m reading. I just anticipate some guys to step up.
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How close to 2019-20 defense we get will determine our floor - how the offense goes will determine our ceiling. I think with the “regular” summer and fall practice schedule, we will be more comfortable on both ends earlier than last year. I agree Mamadi and Brax were exceptional defenders, but I believe that Shedrick has a world of potential to step in and be a mobile rim protector, we have seen what Reece and Kihei can do on defense (and I thought last year was a defensive let-down for Clark), and Stattman was very good on D as well in 2019-20. The pieces are there to have an excellent defense - not saying it’s going to be of the caliber of 2019-20, but it will be way ahead of last year.
Yeah I meant 21. The pieces fit together better for 20. They just weren’t as good.
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It will probably be better than last year but I think you are underestimating how much experience and continuity matter in the packline. Especially with the post players. Kadin will be great in time (2024 ACC DPOY?) but how long is he going to take to get there? Most of our post guys aren’t elite defenders until they get to 1,000 minutes. Kadin’s at 86. Papi is at 267. Jayden is at 0 in the pack and wasn’t known for his defense at ECU.
Kihei and Reece are a great place to start. Reece might be the best on ball defender in the conference next year. But I think the portion of our fan base assuming the defense will be back to our normal elite level are going to be disappointed. We have 4 guys with reasonable packline experience. And one of those guys (Franklin) got the Miller version of it while another just basically had a medical redshirt (Stattmann). So I’m definitely part of the pump the breaks crowd with the defensive rebound. I think we will be somewhere in between last year and seasons like 15/16 and 18/19. Probably finish in the 15-20 range in adjusted D. Honestly the 15/16 D might be the best case scenario if you think about the stronger defenders being on the perimeter of that team as well.
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Part of this too might be defining what we mean by optimistic and pessimistic. I’m feeling pretty optimistic, but by that I mean I think this team could finish top 3 in ACC regular season and get to the Sweet 16. That’s what I’m hoping for from them. Curious what others are feeling/anticipating.
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I’d be very happy with those outcomes. I’m anticipating a battle to make the tournament. The range of how good/bad we could be is much bigger than usual imo
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And to make it even harder to set expectations UNC, FSU, and Louisville look to be in a similar boat. Wide range of outcomes for those teams too.
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I have read enough of the replies both positive and negative to be able to say what I’m thinking. It seems like this team as of right now is a big question mark. The makeup of this team is a lot different from last years team and I think it’s a good thing. We had a lot of talent last year but it never did quite gel. Both on and off the court I believe. I have never seen a UVA bench like last years. Thank God for Chase because the rest of them acted like a sourpus. I believe this team will be much different. In time I can see this team being really good defensively I also look for both Reece and Kehei to shoot much better and that along with Mccorkle hopefully and the new guys that we should be able to space the floor a lot better. Obviously I don’t know a whole lot but I’m looking forward to seeing what this team can do. I’m hoping they surprise us bigtime
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Rumblings for B1G-ACC starting. Duke at Purdue as a possibility. Is it safe to assume we’ll be at Indiana for the transfer story line? Or maybe we finally get our revenge game vs Michigan State?
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