Good find. Based on a quick analysis, looks like that’s the only other team in the modern era (post tournament expansion in 1985) that hasn’t won a tournament game in their next three completed seasons post championship. Of course… that Florida team won back-to-back championships, so the context is a tad bit different there.
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I might be in the minority feeling much less solid about our defense than our offense. So, I put to a poll …
What are you feeling less sure about going into the season?
- Offense
- Defense
0
voters
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Mostly because of uncertainty as to who will actually end up in the rotation fully.
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Makes sense. On D, we just don’t have a shutdown wing defender.
Reece and RD can cover it, but neither is an exact fit for that prototype, and if they cover you lose rim protection (RD) or shutdown D on lead guards (Beekman).
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Feeling unsure about offense. And what I feel unsure about (if Rohde is good enough to take the offense to the next level) would just lead to more Dante i.e., the defense likely gets even better. Or if Rohde/Groves don’t totally elevate the offense, we’d expect more Bond/Harris which makes defense better around the trio of Reece, Dunn, Minor
I just want Bond to be good enough to be the 3 off the bench
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Pump fake, or pass fake?
I would say I’m less sure about our Offense, but it’s close because our Post defense will be full of brand new players. However our defense “with the right pieces” always comes around by the New Year, but our offense doesn’t have *proven bucket getters yet in our system, but we will still be in all of our games due to the D.
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right, my b - editing post
Bond and Gertrude say hello … but will they play a lot?
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I think this is manageable against most teams except for the very elite teams that might have multiple high impact perimeter threats. The 2017-18 team only had Dre in that archetype; Devon in my mind was more very good than shutdown. That team still had an elite defense, as they had elite help D, especially at the rim with Zay and Jack, which meant that everyone else just had to be solid.
I think it will be an open question whether it’s more valuable to have RD lurking off-ball as a rim protector or directly on a big wing threat. Probably depends on whether Minor is an effective rim protector (and on the floor).
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Just interjecting this, as I was somewhat surprised…though perhaps I shouldn’t be. Listening to One Shining Podcast with Terrence Oglesby as the guest and they broke down Frazier’s top 30. We were not in the conversation, but more interestingly – or maybe aggravating – was their quick discussion of the ACC at the end; TO said he expects the top of the league will be some combination of Duke, UNC, Miami, Clemson, and Wake Forest with a prediction that Clemson will win the ACC. Of course we know his connection the program but they both made that prediction and there was no mention of UVA finishing in the top 5.
I really do believe we are flying under the radar, and I kind of like it that way.
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Here’s the list of Power 6 teams that won at least one tourney game in 2019 that have not won any since then (21-23) :
- UVa
- Washington
- Minnesota
- VPI
- UCF**
Fwiw, here is the list of Power 6 teams that have been in the tourney since 2021, who didn’t win a game:
- UVa
- Hoyas
- A&M
- Arizona St
- VPI
- GT
- Seton Hall
- Clemson
- BYU**
- NC St
Here is the list of Power 6 teams that went to two tourneys in 21-23, and are winless:
- UVa
- VPI
So, in conclusion, here is the list of Power 6 teams that won a game in 2019 AND have been to two or more tourneys since AND have failed to get out of the first round:
- UVa
- VPI
** not power 6 at the time, but they will be this year
*** I just realized that I pulled a reverse Danny Neckel, here. Call it a Lekcen Ynnad.
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Why do you always have to be a downer, Haney? 
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This is a very interesting question, and good insight into how we are feeling. I answered offense, but my feelings are a bit complicated:
Defense:
- I think we have the pieces to be a very good defensive team, certainly by late January or so, assuming they have some time to cohere, get used to the college game, get used to UVa, etc.
- Biggest individual question mark for me on D is probably Minor. I could see him being anywhere from not quite good enough to guard the 5 at this level to surprisingly good.
- I don’t think Rohde will be a lock down defender on the wing, but I think he could be a very good wing defender, and I would be surprised if he were a bad wing defender. I really don’t want him guarding ACC 1s, or good ACC 2s, but I like him just fine as our wing defender, or worst guard defender.
- I have some questions about iMac’s D, but I think the floor is “fine”, not bad.
- I expect Reece and Dunn to play at ACC all defense level, if not ACC DPOY level (Reece already does). I expect Eli and Bond to struggle some out of the gate, but I think their ceilings are very high, and I don’t think their PT will be limited by their defensive ability. (I guess you always have questions about guys side-to-side movement until you see it live, but I’m pretty confident…)
- But that leads me to the main defensive question, which is really an offensive question, which is whether our best defensive lineup can contribute enough offensively to stay on the court. (which I guess was @DavetheWave 's point.
Offense:
- This is really where I have the most questions. Unlike on D, everyone’s output, other than maybe Groves, is in question. Below, are just a few, in order of impact:
- Can Reece become the man, and all that implies? Better shooter, more usage, etc. etc. etc.?
- Can iMac raise his 3P volume while staying roughly the same % while also doing a lot more than just being a perimeter shooter?
- How does Rohde translate to the ACC? How does he translate to off-ball?
- Dunn is a tier above, but it’s essentially the same question with him as Leon and Eli. Wouldn’t surprise me if two of those guys are super exciting, highly useful offensive pieces (more than just flashes), and it wouldn’t surprise me if we mostly don’t see the latter two, and Dunn is just incrementally better.
- Can Blake contribute offensively more than just garbage man stuff? If just garbage man stuff, is it really good and valuable garbage man stuff?
- I don’t really have many Dante/Groves/Minor questions. I think I have a rough sense of their offensive ceilings and floors, and I don’t think they’re too far away from each other. The question is if the other guys can play well enough to take their minutes.
So on balance, I land on more offensive questions. I didn’t mean to write a tome, but there you go. And this doesn’t even get into system / stylistic type stuff. E.g., if we go with lineups featuring more athleticism, and we don’t pressure on the perimeter, get into passing lanes (Rohde, for sure), and get more transition points, then we are leaving points on the board. (what did those 3MW stats say? Like mid 300s? I’m not saying we should get into the top 50, but at least make sure that number has a 2 in front ot it).
For better or worse, I think that uptick is mostly from the 3-man motion stuff that would yield some stuff that they didn’t know how to code (just a guess, though)
Wow. TIL that Billy the Kid had a mid-career swoon. Two nattys followed by a three tourney (win) drought. Then reeled off three straight Elite 8s, followed by a final 4. That would be a nice arc, for Tony, too…
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Yep, pretty much fully aligned. core question for me is how can Rohde and iMac handle other teams 2/3? Then, how can we defend other teams traditional bigs?
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Here is the longer version…
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One of my many great predictions is that Raab was gonna be awesome, and Jaylen Brown (already gone before this game) was gonna be just a guy
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Funny. I thought opposite when I was at the Cal game in JPJ
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It is so exciting in a nostalgic way to watch that.
Now – mustering ALL of my optimism – let’s make some highlights that are not based in nostalgia!
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You exemplify the famous Twain quote that he would have written shorter if only he had the time.
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