Final day of the draft about to start, rounds 11-20.
Just to temper expectations I would brace to lose one or two more of our HS commits, not based on any inside info but there are organizations out there who have money saved up to go after a couple big time prospects still left on the board and we always have to account for the bullshit factor as UVA fans lol.
Right on cue, Trey Gregory-Alford gets picked in the 11th round by the Angels.
Wow, Stephan got drafted in the 13th round by the Reds.
Thought there was an outside shot of that happening but didn’t have it as likely.
He has a tough decision to make! Slot is less than $200k but Angels may make an offer over slot. I know in the past these were sometimes per-arranged between the team and the recruit and the money has been pretty good.
James Nunnallee goes in the 14th round to the Brewers.
That will be one to watch, they probably have the money saved up for him but it’s right on the cut line IMO.
Tomas Valincius confirms he’s making it onto Grounds. Big get for our recruiting class.
Im guessing Nunnallee is just a backup for one of the high schoolers the Brewers took. 6 high schoolers they have to shell out bonuses too including round 9 and 10 so I’m guessing he’s coming to grounds.
What factors influence whether teams go over slot or under slot for guys? Or I guess maybe from the player POV, what makes a guy more likely to require going over slot vs being willing to accept under slot?
Getting Nunnallee to actually come to UVA would be a solid win.
Can be a lot of different factors. Age, projected draft range vs. where they were actually drafted, years of eligibility left, how much or how little a player wants to go/stay in college, etc.
Players who typically go under slot are college seniors with no leverage in negotiations, college juniors or draft eligible sophomores who get taken higher than projected, and HS prospects who get taken higher than projected.
Guys who go over slot are ones like TGA, HS players who get taken later in the draft and are thus tougher signs. The Angels took players in the first 10 rounds that allowed them to take a swing at one of the remaining big time HS prospects, and there’s a good chance that they planned to make sure they have enough to appease TGA.
Just zero leverage at that point.
Only 4% of MLB players have a college degree. Feel like the majority of those guys were late blooming position players (Merrifield, Matt Carpenter). I can’t think of any senior outside of Mark Appel that got paid. And that was a unique scenario.
Wondering if Jay floated a number that backed off teams or if teams just weren’t interested generally.
If you have a Daily Progress subscription (or ways to get around a paywall), Jay talks about his decision in this article: Virginia's Jay Woolfolk made 'best choice' to return to Cavaliers for senior season
Basically he told everyone he was going pro, but then didn’t get picked on day two like he expected so he decided to rethink his decision.
I know next to nothing about professional baseball, but as a naive outsider, would it be weird if teams just weren’t interested? He’s had years to show his stuff and has been very inconsistent. I know he had like three good games or whatever to end the year and he’s got the velocity, but does that normally overpower a career that hasn’t totally wowed? Again I know nothing about this, but just doesn’t strike me as odd that the pros might see him as too inconsistent or having not shown enough.
Worked for McGarry.
But McGarry had ++ stuff and a 99-mph heater with one of the nastiest sliders (wipeout) when he could control it. Woolfolk has + stuff, but doesn’t go more than 95 (often) and has a tendency to keep his breaking stuff up.
One difference is that I believe McGarry did have one year of leverage left due to COVID, to my knowledge Jay doesn’t have that so he’s banking a lot on his own development in order to increase his bonus money next year.
But in the inverse, Griff is arguably even more erratic with his stuff than Jay is lol. He is electric when he’s on as he showed in our 2021 postseason run but his larger problems have mostly continued in the pros up to this point.
Didawick confirms on his IG story that he’s returning.
The draft has officially come to a close.
As a recap from today, we saw TGA get drafted in the 11th and James Nunnallee get drafted in the 14th. Also saw Stephan get drafted in the 13th and I honestly couldn’t be happier for Tony, was very much a fan and team favorite by all accounts.
I would put the chances of TGA going pro at about 95%, the Angels have had this exact same strategy the past couple years of taking a HS prospect in the 11th and paying them well over slot with tons of success. It’s a punch in the gut for us but honestly I didn’t expect him to make it past day two, so it was probably wishful thinking in the first place
Nunnallee is more of a wildcard, there’s valid reasons behind either side believing he’ll go pro or stay with his commitment to us. The Brewers took a ton of ‘lottery pick’ guys today (HS players who will either go over slot or not sign at all), and throughout this process I’ve heard from multiple places that Nunnallee in particular will be a tough sign. But on the flip side the Brewers should have had plenty of slot money saved up from their first 12 or so selections which will allow them to be able to make a run at a lot of their later picks, and normally you don’t make a pick in the 14th without being under the impression that you’ve got a decent chance to sign them. The flyers tend to happen later than that, not always but generally speaking. If I had to bet on it I’d say he signs but that could just be me being a pessimist.
But even if we do lose both of them, this draft was still a major success for us. Getting Didawick and Woolfolk back for another year along with getting Harris, Kirk, and Valincius all on Grounds means we’re gonna have loads of talent once again, I probably said this last year but IMO on paper our 2025 team is the deepest we’ve potentially ever had.
I’ll try to take a stab at projecting out the starters and pitching rotation now that we’ve got a more clear roster picture.
This is my best rough estimate at what our everyday starting 9 might look like in 2025 post-draft:
Bench bats/potential platoon options: Antonio Perrotta (1B/DH), Trey Wells (C), Walker Buchanan (OF), Jackson Sirois (OF)
By no means is this a for sure thing, there are SO many variables and moving parts that can happen to switch things up. One of which being Nunnallee making it to Grounds, as he is definitely talented enough to start day one in the OF.
But this is 85 HR’s returning to a lineup that also features Chris Arroyo who hit 18 HR’s at the JUCO level and Aiden Harris who once hit a ball 498 feet and isn’t even 18 yet. There is a lot to be excited about.
Pitching rotation:
Fri: Evan Blanco (LHP)
Sat: Jay Woolfolk (RHP)
Sun: Jack O’Connor (RHP)
Midweek: William Kirk (LHP)
Closer: Matt Augustin (RHP)
This isn’t even scratching the surface of the amount of options and depth we have, but gives you a general idea of what we might see. I think Blanco and Woolfolk are pretty likely to make it back to the weekend, and would assume O’Connor will get the first crack at the Sunday spot assuming he comes back healthy from his injury by the Fall. After that, your guess is as good as mine.
There is a TON of other names that could make up the rest of our pitching depth, too many to list without running the risk of being overly wordy. But just know this is a very deep staff and there’s gonna be a ton of competition as each of the guys vie for spots in the bullpen.
Is Stephan really gonna stay in and leave or come back?