🏀 2025-2026 Bracketology

And he has us below Kansas, which is incomprehensible

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Pretty insane to leave us at 4. Essentially adding two quad one wins doesn’t matter to him? What a dick, he’s always hated UVa.

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I dont think he has Kansas above us, at least he didnt last night before they lost.

Bracket matrix is updated, UVA still in the same spot as the #2 4 seed but their average rank did rise.

It’s going to be wild when all these bracketologist get it wrong :sweat_smile:

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Didn’t check any other teams, but of the 30 brackets posted today, UVA is a 4 in 16 and a 3 in 14.

Unsurprisingly a fan message board has us rated higher than impartial arbiters.

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Come on Cronin, we need UCLA full strength. Also, cc: @EmbracePaceUVA re: UCLA communicating to the committee about player availability in NCAAs.

https://x.com/JonRothstein/status/2032865410995958002?s=20

Personally think its 3 teams for 2 spots. Would be really surprised if Alabama got a three. Vandy can join the conversation with a win

Two questions I’m just wondering if anybody has data on:

  1. What is the highest percentage of the top three seeds any conference has ever gotten? If the bracket projections out there right now were to come true, the BIG would have 5 of the top 12 seeds, or 42%. Was just curious what that looks like in a historical context.
  2. What percentage of 3 seeds make it to the sweet 16 and what percentage of 4 seeds make it?

Might be easy to look up, I’m just not sure where and I have to go do some soil testing to figure out what shrubs I’m planting behind the house (I’m sure everyone is psyched for that update later this week).

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  1. The SEC had five top three seeds last year
  2. 52.5% of three seeds make the sweet 16 vs 48.1% of four seeds. 1.84 vs 1.56 expected wins
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He has us in San Diego and Kansas in Philly. That’s giving Kansas location preference over us.

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I can’t believe Duke Miles is going to end up taking our 3 seed

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If the 3 line is us along with Illinois, Nebraska and Purdue, the committee would almost certainly pair a 6 seed Wisconsin in our region.

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Fair amount of group think in bracketology though. The fact that nearly half of brackets moved us up to a 3 overnight is promising, imo, and makes me think the consensus is shifting. Especially when one of the ones who didn’t is Lunardi.

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Yes Trilly, that would be awesome. If we’re only a 4 seed, that is. But maybe 3/14 possibility as well?

https://x.com/trillydonovan/status/2032867877330604246?s=20

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A bit different for a guy who played last night vs. someone who hasn’t played in months and there hasn’t been any real timeline for his return until suddenly right before selection Sunday.

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Unfortunately I think we’re going to have to win tonight to get a 3 (unless Florida somehow comes back). Vanderbilt is going to have a better resume than us after this game, and I’m just not confident the committee will put us above Gonzaga even though they should. Bracket matrix updated a few more brackets, we’re only a 3 in 14 of 39 updated today

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Vandy resume would still be behind Virginia in metrics but their efficiency metrics would be materially better.

Florida is a total mystery to me. They’ve not beaten anyone great but they’ve beaten good teams by so much their metrics are off the charts.

UMBC will be a 15 or 16 so nope

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Oh dear…

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