They really need Wilson to be good, and not just good, but specifically primary-ish scoring option good (like @haney is saying Torvik is forecasting). They have a āwhoās gonna take the shotsā problem but their role players are pretty good, IMO. But even if Wilson is really good, they will need 1-2 of Dixon/Denis/Young to be capable of significant rotation minutes and James Brown ready to play a lot of backup center minutes.
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Iām very glad weāve already locked up Malik Thomas because Duke and UNC would be pushing hard for him if he was available. They need a guy like him badly. Sarr is a better NBA prospect but heās not going to have the impact in 1 year that Malik will. Those two rosters donāt really scare me at the moment.
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If Young is healthy he will be solid. He has been good in the stretches where healthy.
Trimble also will be really good with ball in his hands (see their Memphis exhibition and start to the season last year when RJ was hobbled). Dixon and Denis could be day 1 impact guys too and maybe Jarun takes the next step.
But you are counting on a lot to happen for them to be top 20 good
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I do not know what you see in Jaydon Young. Really inefficient player
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Was Techās highest usage player as a true sophomore, 41% on his 2-pointers and 30% on 3ās. Took a slight majority of his shots from beyond the arc, not a huge driver, FT Rate of only 15% so doesnāt generate a ton of FTās, only 38 FTAs all season. Ultimately only an ORtg of 99.2 in ACC Play.
So the questions for Young are (a) would be benefit from (and be okay with) moving back into a complementary role, where Trimble and Evans are the higher usage guys and Youngās role is maybe on par with Dixon, and (b) does he continue to improve as he ages up into his junior season?
I just see some information value in the fact that he was heading to High Point before UNC swooped. Granted, High Point is probably close to the top of their particular program weight class when it comes to funding, but itās still a different weight class.
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Strange hill to die on for the NCAA. I donāt really understand either since I thought 20-21 just didnāt count whether you played or not.
So he entered school 20-21 and redshirted. Played in 21-22, 22-23 and 23-24. Then injured and redshirted in 24-25. The NCAA isnāt saying heās out of eligibility. Theyāre saying heās out of time to use his remaining year of eligibility under the play 4 seasons in 5 years rule. But if 20-21 doesnāt count, then whereās the 5 years? I mean, if he did play in 20-21, wouldnāt he still be able to play in 25-26? So since he didnāt play in 20-21, heās not eligible for 25-26? That makes no sense at all.
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I cannot find any angle on this where the NCAAās call makes sense to me unless he didnāt arrive from overseas (Egypt) with all his eligibility in tact. Heās listed on RealGM with a November 2001 birthday which would mean he arrived at Charlotte in 2020 at a very normal 18 years old, so canāt imagine thatās it, though.
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Yeah thereās gotta be more to the story weāre not getting. There are plenty of players out there who began their college careers in 2020, Dante Harris for one.
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As much as I hate to give Joe Lunardi attention, heās one of the only people doing rankings past 25 right now. He has
Duke - 1 seed
North Carolina - 5 seed
Louisville - 6 seed
Miami - 10 seed
NC State - 10 seed/L4I
SMU - 11 seed/L4I
Clemson - Next Four Out
Virginia - Next Four Out
Notre Dame - Next Four Out
Kinda squares with the thought that 4-9 in the conference will be a bit of a cluster. Separated by ~ 12 spots nationally. Personally I think UNC will be closer to the cluster than they will be to Duke but.
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Iāll bite on this. I call bullshit. See very little reason why they should be considered a tournament team frankly.
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Lunardi knows nothing about basketball without data. Why even waste your time looking at his nonsense.
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Somehow NC State and Miami get a huge boost for a new coach and new roster but we donāt.
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If we get de Ridder I bet a lot we finish above those 2.
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Miamiās roster:
| PG Tre Donaldson (SR Transfer, Michigan) | 37 G, 31.1 mpg, 11.3 ppg, 4.1 apg, 38% 3P% | |
| G Jordyn Kee (3-star RS FR) | ||
| SG Tru Washington (JR Transfer, New Mexico) | 34 G, 28.2 mpg, 11.1 ppg, 1.9 apg, 34% 3P% | |
| G/F Dante Allen (4-star FR) | ||
| SF Shelton Henderson (4-star FR) | ||
| F Timotej Malovec (3-star FR) | ||
| PF Marcus Allen (SO Transfer, Missouri) | 26 G, 9.2 mpg, 2.6 ppg, 2 rpg, 44% FG% | |
| F/C Malik Reneau (SR Transfer, Indiana) | 26 G, 23.2 mpg, 13.3 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 55% FG% | |
| C Ernest Udeh Jr. (SR Transfer, TCU) | 30 G, 26.6 mpg, 6.6 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 63% FG% |
Donaldson, Reneau, Washington, and Udeh are all top 100 transfers on EvanMiya, so itās a good headline group, and of course theyāve got a couple of nice rookies to include Henderson whoās a borderline 5-star that they stole from Duke. But itās badly lacking in depth, and nine new faces is a lot for a first time ever head coach. Iām skeptical itās any better than recent highly inconsistent Miami rosters of the late stage Larranaga era.
NC Stateās Roster
| PG Tre Holloman (SR Transfer, Michigan State) | 37 G, 23.1 mpg, 9.1 ppg, 3.7 apg, 33% 3P% | |
| G Alyn Breed (RS SR Transfer, Providence [22-23]) | 32 G, 18.4 mpg, 4.8 ppg, 1.5 apg, 28% 3P% | |
| G/F Paul McNeil Jr. (SO) | 24 G, 8.7 mpg, 4.2 ppg, 1.3 rpg, 36% 3P% | |
| G/F Matt Able (4-star FR) | ||
| SF Quadir Copeland (RS SR Transfer, McNeese State) | 35 G, 21.9 mpg, 9.2 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 15% 3P% | |
| SF Terrance Arceneaux (RS JR Transfer, Houston) | 40 G, 20.3 mpg, 6.5 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 34% 3P% | |
| F Colt Langdon (3-star RS FR) | ||
| PF Zymicah Wilkins (4-star FR) | ||
| F/C Paul Mbiya (3-star FR) | ||
| F/C Jerry Deng (JR Transfer, Florida State) | 31 G, 15.4 mpg, 7 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 43% FG% |
Wolfpack are at 10, so baseline roster depth, though four are rookies. Three transfers are Top 150 on EvanMiya in Holloman, Arceneaux, and Copeland. Shooting is going to be a massive concern, so expect some cold nights. At least in Stateās case, you know Wadeās an experienced coach, both at the P5 level and with assembling rosters quickly having changed jobs three times in the last decade. Donāt think theyāre a contender but could see them playing spoiler.
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We are getting dinged because we have two starters/contributors from euro ball. Pundits donāt follow it and the analytics donāt include them.
In a hypothetical where we had Arceneaux and Baba Miller instead of De Ridder and GrĆ¼nloh, weād be listed as a 5-6 seed. (Those are approximate comps in terms of roster value add).
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Wolfpack guards look meh right now, but I think theyāre front of line for PJ Haggerty if he drops out of the draft
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Paul McNeil Jr is going to be a good player eventually. Will Wade is hoping ASAP