Yeah I don’t think “defense vs offense” is answered in the abstract—it’s answered for specific positions/lineups. You might be OK with offense over defense with Chance, but at the 5 it could be different. And if you’re Cuts and you’ve done a crapload of cutting, seems reasonable to me to say he’s seen the evidence that it is different at the 5.
3 Likes
Exactly.
It’s also worth mentioning that this is a preseason prognostication. No one knows anything. Everyone is making their predictions based on reasonable assumptions. When it comes to Ugo minutes, Cuts could be right, Mr Icarus could be right, or it could be some third option. Staking out immutable positions when making predictions is pretty silly. We are all guessing.
6 Likes
Yeah. Don’t be like Dickarus and throw a multiple day temper tantrum over it
2 Likes
What is absolutely true is it seems like so many here are forgetting the need in 2025 for a vertical threat to an offense not just a two dimensional horizontal threat…. A guy who can dunk anything close to the rim on lobs and offensive put backs is so valuable as he makes the defender decide on pick and roll defense whether he crashes in to guard the lob threat or stays with the short corner three point shooter..
We only have two real lob threats consistently on this team that can go get semi good lobs and still finish. Ugo and Eli.
Most top 30 teams have at least three or four.
1 Like
I agree with the first part… but I do think Johann is a pretty effortless dunker and easy lob target.
3 Likes
Just a wee bit curious, but… While I get it that the lob & dunk excites the crowd more, how are the results any different from a pocket pass & lay-up (whether dunk or not) resulting from that same pick & roll? The ball handler is still making the defender make a choice which leaves someone open.
A defender can cut off angles on horizontal passes - and can jab step the passing lane.
I was pretty good as the defender on 2 on 1 fast break scenarios when there was no lob threat - jab stepping etc - playing with the ball handlers eyes… but when there was a pro level athlete as the finisher - much more difficult- and obviously a lot more confidence from the offensive players.
Actually had the backboard broken on top of me on one such play by an NBA player - 2 on 1 - I was the 1… lob to Corie Blount - nineties Bulls - in a summer run.
In fact Luka demands to play with centers who are lob threats - it really opens the floor for him once he puts the defender in jail on his hip on pick and rolls… why he was so good with Lively and Gafford.
6 Likes
Being tall in basketball helps. This is the level of analysis I bring to LRA.
11 Likes
Yeah - you’ll see Odom talking about it in clips a lot; about throwing the ball up at the rim when the advantage is generated where the defender can’t get to it.
It’s because a pocket pass or any kind of horizontal pass has to hit a smaller window of accuracy and can be defended by any defender of any size positioned between the ball handler and the recipient. A pass that puts vertical pressure on the defense will go over the same defender who might be in good position to defend the pocket pass. It requires that the defender has much more depth on the play, clinging to the lob threat, (allowing him to bother the dribbler less) and requires that they be able to elevate to defend. It also allows for virtually no recovery time as the recipient just gathers on the jump and finishes vs. having to catch and then go up - putting even more pressure on the defender.
Even in a non-pnr situation, having the more standstill lob threats (Ugo/Gunloh) camp the opposite block of the play requires that the rim protector stay closer to them, else they give up the lob (or easy offensive rebound put back).
This is why Odom’s offensive system doesn’t really care (it’s always preferable) if the Center is a shooter - as long as they’re a good rim-runner/lob threat (and, at the other end, protector). It keeps the spacing fine for everyone else.
9 Likes
Grünloh seems to be good at making himself available in non-lob situations too. Hands are high and visible and he is maintaining a good angle for the passer with his positioning.
5 Likes
Will be interesting to see whether Grünloh can be an elbow dunker - right now I only see 3 elbow dunkers - 4 if we include Roberts.
Ugo, Eli, and Hall
White?
Yeah this is an underrated aspect of his game. His team kinda treated him like a TE or elite WR where they’d kinda just throw the ball in his general direction even when he wasn’t clearly “open”. He’s really good at catching those passes and doing something productive with the ball, even if it’s kicking it back out. Mover/blocker at its worst involved either a lack of post touches or irrelevant/non-value add post touches. We’ll be able to get Johann the ball in areas where the defense (not just his defender) will be forced to react.
2 Likes
Johann noted in an interview with Luke neer that he’s been focused on scoring in the post. He said in Germany when he got the ball down there the coaches told him to pass it back it out, because he was relatively smaller than the 30 year old dudes covering him.
6 Likes
Nah
Not really sure we’ll need to do that. Lewis has a lot of value at the 3 and we have loads of options at the 4-5.
We’re legitimately 2 deep at both the 4 and 5 (3 deep if you throw in Lang). We’re more thin at the wing with Lewis being the only proven guy with size. Malik can obviously play the 3 but he’s a little undersized to really take advantage there. So Lewis being good and locking down the 3 spot is probably best case for us.
1 Like
Sorry @Hoos4Life - I missed your post. I essentially agree with Embrace the Pace on this, though. I’m not sold it would be bad if Lewis played a few minutes here - but it would be matchup-specific and I think they’re going to view TDR rest minutes as their opportunity to get Tillis on the floor. He’s not as laterally effective as Lewis would be, but he is a stronger presence.
The main thing is that there are a few angles he brings on the offensive end I think they’re going to want to play with some - such as isolating guards that switch onto him after screens and taking advantage of his passing/shooting.
Also, to the point above, I think playing Lewis with Tillis also offers a bit of a positional size shield across the roster when TDR is out rather than playing either. I imagine there will be some minute skews where when Tillis is in the game, Lewis and Ugo are typically in more where when TDR is in the game, Lewis gets more rest and Grünloh plays more.
2 Likes
Just catching up here so excuse me for being late to the party.
When predicting minutes for Ugo v Johann, have you properly controlled for blowouts?
Thanks.
(Sarcasm btw please don’t answer)
1 Like
I shit on this cartoon.
LOL!! It’s a great cartoon and so true. Way, way too true for sports forums and any sports discussion!! I think the person who has never been a doofus at least once, and in most cases numerous times, in a social media forum is incredibly rare. What separates temporary doofusness from major dickesness is whether you’re self-aware that you could be wrong on occasion.
Well done!!
3 Likes