I understand what you’re saying and I can get it. Random note/story About 13 or 14 yrs ago I had a chance to chat with Billy Beane in a small group and we quabbled about the exact thing you and I are. I was not a proponent of Money Ball because as a concept his purist version of it did not work. Sure the A’s had success but they did not win in the playoffs. And he took your angle of it was designed to play he averages and over the course of a season it created a viable sustainable product, but when you get to a series and it’s 1-3-5-7 game samples the avgs don’t always work for you and talent kicks in. Which is why it works for the Sox, Cubs, Dodgers they take all the analytics and then still get the best players no mater the cost.
Anyways, after that story to say I had a talk with Billy Beane, the thing is I take approach that it’s championship or bust. Build a culture sustain it and win. Anything short of that ship, eh.
Well word is they aren’t done yet. They are a legit dark horse for KD would require losing Ingram and a few parts, but they have a boatload of picks still from the Jrue Holiday deal and I mean I love Ingram but KD is KD.
I don’t think they are going to land KD but trading Zion for KD and rolling out BI, TM3, and KD as your 2-4 would be kind of crazy, the slim reaper trio
Kicking Steven Adams in the junk is a really, really risky move.
Also, while my underdog supporting-inner math nerd-Northern Californian loves the Money Ball story, its a pretty dramatic case of the narrative overtaking the facts. The Moneyball story is all about OBP% and Hatteburg and Giambi and stuff, which is all great. Beane was able to assemble a roughly league average offense really, really cheap.
But what really made the team a winner was the As getting incredibly lucky in having 3 guys develop almost instantly into staff-ace quality starting pitchers in their early 20s while they were still cheap simultaneously: Hudson, Zito and Mulder. And Moneyball had nothing to do with that. They just got lucky.
In truth, Moneyball is the story of a baseball GM who found a winning lottery ticket on the ground, and figured out how to improve that stroke of luck from being a really good team (amazing pitching handicapped by a terrible offense) into a great team (amazing pitching with a halfway decent offense) despite a really limited budget.
Beane was a clever guy who really did figure out some interesting stuff, but in terms of the A’s success, the heavy lifting was mostly done by getting incredibly lucky with drafting starting pitchers (some of which was Beane but some was Sandy Alderson).
Edit - Also, its incredibly cool you got to meet Beane. I know this probably came across as negative, but the guy really was a miracle worker (just not to the degree the story paints him as being) and is one of my all-time heroes.
Steven Adams is one of the few current NBA players I would not want to mess with. Legit country strong.
I also agree 100% on the A’s and their success. Getting that staff to gel like it did was a coup, and Beane blew it up the moment their prices went up. Leading to the issue with pure Money Ball, it’s enough to help you field a very good above avg team that can occasionally luck into the right parts.
I also give Beane a ton of credit for monetizing an idea through book and movie deals and at this point the myth is bigger than the reality.
I agree with this attitude for a big market team like Houston. However for small market teams like OKC it isn’t a feasible way to operate. Being good enough to make the second round is success unless you are able to get a Giannis type of generational talent. At least with the current structure of the NBA (and MLB too for that matter.)
You’re probably right and that’s the logical approach. but my competitive mindset combined with boundless ambition means I’ll never be happy with that being the reality. It’s similar to Virginia football. I know a National Title isn’t in the future, but I think everything should be working towards one and the goal should always be that. To set the goal at less is doing a disservice.
And maybe that’s what it is, if a team starts out the season with the mindset of “we just want to make the 2nd round and anything else is gravy” I say that team has already lost because they have limited themselves in believing what is possible.
To be honest I agree with your thought process, especially with the NBA. I’m not sure how much fun it was to be a Pacers fan during that stretch where they were a perennial 4-7 seed
Edit: which is to say that my point with Houston is that they got to the point where they could realistically win a title. They just got unlucky on a couple of fronts
You’re right. It’s a fine line between that Paces 4-7 and the Rockets or Clippers Western Conference Finals tap out.
My original point more so about Houston “collapsing” was they went all in especially at the end when they shipped Paul out for Westerbrook, Capella got shipped and they went with a near gimmick offense for that half season. I think that hits a little different, almost a microcosm, of the overall Houston Harden experience.
Sam’s not playing tonight for the Celtics, but I’m watching their game - they have Trevion Williams from Purdue and I really like watching him play. Seems like he gets every rebound and has made some really sweet passes. Random, but just always loved his game
