It’s behind a paywall so don’t want to share too much (there’s a ton about other cinderellas and Slawson individually), but here’s a bit what he said about the match-up:
What does the matchup look like? The primary matchup for Slawson will likely be Jayden Gardner. Gardner is a really good defensive player who has held up really well in matchups against skilled bigs like Paolo Banchero previously. This should work well when Furman big Garrett Hien is on the court. It’ll allow Virginia to play Gardner in his typical spot at the four. But what happens when Furman goes small with Slawson at the five with skilled players around him? The season-ending injury to skilled four-man Ben VanderPlas is incredibly important here, as he gave the Cavaliers real lineup versatility against small-ball units. Without him, Virginia is more reliant upon slower, bigger centers Kadin Shedrick and Francisco Caffaro to eat up minutes, as well as freshman forward Ryan Dunn. Shedrick and Caffaro are just poor matchups in a game like this where Slawson can pull them away from the rim while Furman surrounds him with perimeter players. I love Dunn long-term, but he’s fairly untested at this point.
Essentially, Furman is going to put Virginia into some situations that are really unexplored in this game. Per Pivot Analysis, the team has only played the Kihei Clark–Reece Beekman–Isaac McKneely–Armaan Franklin-Gardner lineup for 17 total minutes this season. They’ve played the Clark-Beekman-Franklin-Dunn-Gardner lineup more often, but that’s still only 28 minutes in total. Those are the lineups Virginia will likely need in this game. Both lineups have had success, but Furman is well-schooled and experienced enough to take advantage of any communication-based mistake or any flaw that comes from playing non-experienced lineups and players. And again, all of this is before we get to the offensive end of the floor, where Virginia is outside of the top 70 nationally. This isn’t a guaranteed upset, but Virginia should be on alert here in large part because of how Slawson’s presence will force them into tougher spots.
(PS: Let me know if you think this is sharing too much behind a paywall. Want to be respectful of that.)
But doesn’t it work the other way around too? Does Furman have anyone who can stop us from easy scores in the paint with a bigger lineup — and, if not, doesn’t that force them to sub in their plodding forward to stop the bleeding on the defensive end?
This analysis takes into consideration only how we can defend, not how they’re going to defend us. If Furman threes aren’t falling, and we’re owning the paint, they, not us, will have to make the adjustment.
yep. someone posted about their defense allowing a lot of cuts/space, so i am hopeful for a lot of kihei/reece drives and lobs to Kadin (or even Dunn or Caffaro) who can just go over top of a defender giving up 4 inches and a lot of athleticism (in the case of Dunn)
Yup I talked about that earlier. Go with that active blocker mover we saw against Clemson and UNC. The off the ball movement will put the Furman defense on it’s heels. Then trust Kihei and Reece to get paint touches and the the Virginia bigs will be able to go over the top for the finish.
I wasn’t thinking feeding Kadin in the post, rather just running straight Blocker Mover. Kadin adds some rim pressure when the movers curl the screen or in the side pick and roll two-man game. I was bringing that up as a part of voting No on starting Dunn.
100%. That’s why writing a piece from the lens of cinderella strengths must be a lot of fun. All you have to say is “Virginia’s offense is outside the top 70 in efficiency” without digging any more deeply.
I love Sam V, and I think his stuff on the tourney is good because he focuses on player stuff and avoids so much of the “narrative” stuff that others focus on. But I haven’t really seen a good pundit analysis of our game and I include Sam’s and this tidbit is a prime example. BVP is a loss on offense, and maybe a loss on the defensive boards, too. But guarding bigs on the perimeter? I mean (1) why is he conflating Papi and Sheds guarding on the perimeter? That’s silly. And (2) if you picked two guys to cover mobile bigs, I think you’d pick Dunn and Shed top 2 (maybe Jayden), and BVP last. What Furman seems to like to do on offense with Slawson fits right into what we are currently doing well on defense. The issue is going to be our offense… and the best analysis on that is an emoji:
(fwiw, though, the media guy I’ve seen/heard who’s more or less got this correct idea in his head is Jim Root and he still picked Furman, so here comes my expert analysis again: )
I guess there are legitimate differences of opinion, but I think BVP is a much better perimeter defender than Shedrick. He’s quicker on the closeouts and better on the slides. I imagine that we’ll use Dunn a lot more in place of BVP than we’ll use Kadin.
Another thing that’s clear to me in following all the analysis of our game is that everyone watched / paid attention to the Duke game and nobody watched / paid attention to the Clemson or UNC games. Which makes sense from an eyeball competition standpoint (Thursday and Friday of Champ Week is a smorgasbord) but I think it’s why everyone is coming up with their takes.
Bilas and Seth Greenberg have seen a lot of Virginia this season, and they both picked Virginia to the Sweet Sixteen. Doesn’t mean they’re smarter than anyone else, but they don’t lack for information.
BVP is definitely more fundamentally sound, but I think Kadin is bigger, taller and has more explosion. I remember some moments when Kadin is legit defending guards fairly well on the perimeter. Also, I think his fouling issues are more in the post and when he over-hedges.
I was worried after UNC that THAT was our championship. Then we Papi Mauled Clemson. Then day 3 of 3 was rough. Sacrificed offense for defense in lotta ways
We should be very confident after the ACC Tourney. Other than the fact that Furman is basically a better 3 shooting team than Duke
I don’t think they even paid attention to the duke game. It was a 5 point game when we started fouling. The offense did not play well but it was not some sort of dominant duke blowout.
And a lot of the poor offense was Duke’s NBA level athletes making easy stuff really hard. Against lesser teams there were 6-8 easy points that turned into turnovers and duke fast breaks
