Fair, I should really limit this to the 3 guards/wings. Unless folks think BVP is playing the 3 on the reg, and if so, then letās talk about the tradeoffs with that.
This is just a tangent on your post, but I think you can simplify why we werenāt very good last year: (1) the starters we had last year couldnāt shoot very well, (2) the bench players who could shoot werenāt good enough overall to take minutes from the starters, and (3) the team defense was comparatively mediocre.
Going into this year, Iām assuming (1) just is what it is. Dudes develop, but I donāt think itās fair to assume older guys are going to take a massive leave in their shooting percentages. The hope for improvement has to come from (2) and (3).
The young guys and BVP havenāt played a minute yet for UVA, so we canāt know for certain if (2) will improve, but Iād bet on it being the case. That at least takes us from no playable shooting to some playable shooting, which is an improvement, even if it likely doesnāt transform our offensive profile. Then on (3), our size issues will still be a problem, but here another year of experience and continuity in the system should be expected to pay some dividends.
Overall, I think weāre probably going to go from a C+ team to a B+ team. But maybe thatās a dumb way of looking at it.
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This is the part that sticks in my craw having watched UVa play offense 2 of the last 3 years:
āSo the goal of good offense is to get a good look. If itās early, great. I think people are surprised when they play for us; thereās more freedom than they realize offensively. Weāre gonna hold you accountable to try to get a good shot. If itās early and itās the right guy, absolutely. If itās not, so be it.ā
Tonyās being a little coy** about his actual theory, which is that you work the shot clock to get a better shot. I mean, every coach in the world agrees with the words from Tony there, but not all of them agree with his actual theory, which is ālonger possessions TEND towards higher efficiency.ā
And the problem with the actual theory is that if you donāt have good, efficient offensive players, thereās no inherent advantage to working the shot clock, and many coaches actually find the opposite ā better to use other advantages those players might have (e.g., physicality - offensive rebounds / athleticism ā more transition).
** On second read, I guess āWeāre gonna hold you accountable to try to get a good shotā basically implies that you need to hold for a better shot.
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Would love to get to 301st ā¦ p.s. not happening if he insists on packline only defense all the time ā¦
would love to trap and pressure at times.
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I agree about your analysis of the teamās floor. I also think we can talk about the whole pieces blah blah blah but in reality things are very simple: this team is noticeably better if Reece and Kadin make a jump and Isaac^2 is ready to go. Or you could sub in BVP for Traudt since their sill sets overlap and they are presumably competing with each other for minutes.
The ceiling comes down to those 4-5 guys and everything else is just a distraction. If they arenāt where we need them then we are basically the team we saw during ACC play last year.
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need this fire more often. Eff these other programs negatively recruiting, eff Nolan Smith yelling at Tony last year, hope we annihilate the acc this year
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I guess my basic problem with any optimistic theories of this year (i.e., anything beyond say a 6 or 7 seed) is that I think we need to solve these problems simultaneously to move up to a Sweet 16 caliber team:
- Get more height/size at the 3 (and maybe 4)
- Get more shooting from 1-4
- Keep enough experience to keep the defensive gains from last year
And I think those are hard problems to solve with our current roster (i.e., with the 4 frosh being ā¦ frosh). I guess there are multiple ways to do it, however, and the most likely would be:
- BVP works at the 3, and Traudt plays well enough to take 10-15 at the 4, and both are non-liabilities at D pretty quickly
- I-Mac can the play the 2 regularly (but doesnāt see much time with Traudt to keep D experience relatively high)
- AND/OR Reece becomes a good 3-point shooter at volume
- AND/OR Armaan becomes a good 3-point shooter at volume and can play the 2 on the reg
(and yes, I said one way, and then I typed out multiple ways ā¦ Sue meā¦)
Those things just seem relatively unlikely to meā¦
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I sort of think that Reece making a jump is an independent variable, but Kadin making a jump is a dependent variable (e.g., he needs more space on offense), which is why I donāt really focus on him much
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Ppg predictions.
Jayden - 16 (+1)
Armaan - 12 (+1)
Kihei - 8 (-2)
Reece - 11 (+3)
Kadin - 10 (+4)
Isaac M - 3
Isaac T - 3
Taine - 3 (+1)
Intangibles - Jayden and Reece (mainly) are fighting for NBA draft position, hope they go off.
Team has something to prove, last yearās O was brutal.
New life with the freshman
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I think Iāve been around @haney too much when I start to agree with him. I am optimistic that this team will be better than last seasonās, but I donāt think we need to go crazy, a 6 or 7 seed is very appropriate as he said.
I do like the potential depth of this team depending on how itās deployed. At this point I donāt know what the right combination is. Iāll save that for seeing everyone in real game situations and accessing how the returning players have progressed.
One thing I do really like about this yearās team is the potential versatility of the players. the past few years I felt guys could do/play one role and that was it. There are now some guys who can go 2/3 or 3/4 4/5. That could unlock some more opportunities.
But all of that I donāt think changes the ceiling for this yearās squad. This is step 1.
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Thatās good. I have the opposite effect on most people. 
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Youāre getting soft in your old age.
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Yikesā¦ what NBA team is looking for a 6-5 Power forward with no hops, canāt shoot from deep and is slow?
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Basically agree with this. While I quibble with some of the substance, I like to see that Tony is firing back at some of this stuff. You saw it a bit with what Elmarko said about Tony. And really, itās a great message for guys like Elmarko. āHey, youāre really good. But the NBA eats good players for breakfast ā (they eat players for breakfast?) ā so you should come here and learn to be efficient, and thatās how youāll earn your second contract. Or you could go to Texas or Miami and wear oversized cowboy hats and make G-League elite money to promote weird apps, and never develop your game. Your choice. Let me know where Isaac Wong gets drafted. Yeah, Iām bitter, Haney canāt even pretend to be me, Tony, without being bitter about Elmarko.ā
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Think thatās a good way to put it for Kadin offensively. But this team needs to make a jump defensively as much as offensively and Kadin is undeniably the spearhead on that end. Heās only scratched the surface of what he can do on that of the court.
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TB FROM THE TOP ROPE OMGGGGG
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Lotta likes here
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This yearās team will be significantly better than last yearās team, and has a legitimate chance of missing the tournament again. Our schedule absolutely blows.
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Schedule isnāt doing us any favors
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-McKneely and Murray are both bigger (at least build wise in Isaacās case) than Armaan. Still not ideal size but not giving up quite as much. And of course the 2/3 are somewhat interchangeable and an Armaan-Isaac/Taine pairing is significantly bigger than a Kihei/Armaan pairing. Similar idea for BVP vs Garnder at the 4. Which brings up the weird spot many predict might happen this year where Garnder is our most reliable individual scorer but our best lineups have BVP or Traud instead of Jayden. How does the staff manage that?
-Obviously the shooting hope comes down to Isaac^2 and BVP (and possibly Taine. percentages havenāt reflected it yet but his form has always looked good). They have to prove it at the ACC level but there is reason for optimism with all 3. And they mentioned it on the podcast but the knock on effect of those guys hitting should also mean Armaan and Kihei take a lower % of our 3PA.
-This is where we have the conundrum because fixing the offensive issues means Kihei, Armaan, and Jayden lose minutes. But then someone less experienced in the packline is counted on defensively. Hope is maybe the added size counteracts some of the issues caused by inexperience and that Kadin is ready to be a true mistake eraser this year?
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