UVA January Discussion Thread (and Happy New Year)

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That is a fascinating graph. We are basically running one of the best team offenses in the country it’d appear. That’s really impressive.

The slightly negative flip side of that is we have a lot less dudes creating their own offense than the vast majority of teams. That’s great until it’s March and there’s three minutes on the clock and nothing we’re running is working because the other team is actually good and prepped all week just for us and our stuff. Will we have a guy who can just step up and get us buckets?

If NIT Armaan shows up, or Reece decides to take an additional step, or McKneely just has a massive coming out party, then that could be that answer. But we’ll need it at some point.

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Yup, I naturally took the pessimist’s spin on this. Not creating much “own offense” (relatively) on the dribble drive, not getting many unassisted fast break buckets, not getting many put-backs off of offensive boards. (though I guess this is mostly about the X axis. The Y axis is a very good thing. Also look at Kevin Keatts and his steady upperclass guards towards the top … :eyes: )

The x-factor is McKneely or Reece starting to hit some mid range pull-ups

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wouldn’t most fast break buckets generally be assisted though? Outside of the Reece breakaway steals, I feel like it’s usually a 2 on 1 or 3 on 2 (or just a throw ahead for an easy dunk), and at least 75% of those lead to assists?

i agree somewhat on the dribble drive, i bet even when we do it’s coming around a screen and touching the paint off one dribble and we’re probably catching assists for those. i do think the offense we create off dribble drive is generally assists for dunks and/or kickouts to open 3s.

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I don’t really think “creating your own shot” is that necessary when you’re creating shots for others. Shots assisted often tend to be better looks and, either way, someone is creating something, it’s just a matter of who is shooting.

Plus, Reece, Armaan, and Kihei have all pretty dramatically improved their own shot creation this year since we’ve shifted offenses and that’s a much smaller portion of the season.

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Gardner’s probably been historically (recently) our best shot creator for himself… and those are many of the shots we’re actually better off reducing the number of…

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Our drivers aren’t finishers … and yes that has been a problem and will continue to be … we don’t have Ty Jerome or Hunter or Anderson or Brogdon on this team …
Reece really needs to learn how to finish in the 5-12 foot area …

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Yeah, I think probably yes - or at least around 50%. That’s why I said “unassisted fast breaks.”

Agree – “creating your own shot” is not necessarily more efficient.

Like I said, just being a pessimist. I think this is generally a good thing, but the best offenses have a lot of variety.

Right! This is like our final stage big boss (like the guy throwing flaming axes in Mario Bros)

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i keep thinking of that play at Michigan where he drove, pivoted and went up in the middle of the lane and scored (and maybe got a foul too?).

have seen him do the 1st half of that a number of times the last few games but either the lane has been more crowded, or he’s just seemed to be doing it with the intention to pass. still feels like he can get a good look like that, though.

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Since switching to the Traingle/5-Out with either 4 guards and BVP or 3 guards, Dunn, and BVP, the ability of our guards to drive/finish around the rim has been much improved, especially Clark who made a living doing that against both FSU and VT, but both Franklin and Reece have benefitted as well.

I don’t think our sample size has been enough for this to dramatically impact our season numbers, but I do not think it’s a huge area of concern as long as we’re in those offenses/sets. It is a pretty significant concern when Gardner plays, though, IMO.

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Don’t disagree completely … but as teams scout us for one and done games … they will likely come to the same conclusion that I have about defending our current rotations …

  1. Defend Gardner one on one and let whatever happens happen.
  2. Force Kihei to use the ball screen into traffic and not reject it away from traffic (this has been his secret sauce this year) …
  3. And force BVP to prove he is willing and able to make semi contested threes for an entire game …
  4. Force Beekman to make non layup twos.
  5. Force Isaac to drive and be a finisher…
  6. Don’t let Armaan touch the ball the first 7 minutes of the game. Or at least get a good look so he gets in rhythm…
    Easy right?? :joy:
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Tony broke iMac’s mid range shot

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Yeah, not easy to do all or many of those things. Especially because the offensive flow is designed to make it easy to get shots at the rim or to create wide open looks outside if they help. Although I’m definitely of the opinion that it’s all easier to accomplish on defense when Gardner’s playing. I’d like to get to a point where we’re only using him when he has a clear and distinct one-on-one advantage over his man and can win in the low post, not just fading away. If he can, then it’s all fine, but if he can’t like at Wake, it bogs everything down.

The other thing they might start doing is just forcing Dunn to make those open threes. Leave with his man, help, and then let him shoot - so that will be a thing for us to keep an eye on. He can mitigate this some by crashing into the lane when his man helps either to hit the glass or to present an option to finish, but at some point he’s going to be tested at volume out there. How he does will determine a lot of stuff.

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I agree with this and generally it’s way better over the course of a full season. Maybe this is ignorant fan speak in me, but my concern is that post-season can be somewhat different. Teams scout you more thoroughly and are better at taking away what you do best.

It at least feels to me like purely system offensive teams can survive for a while but are way less likely to advance deeply than teams that run really good stuff to produce good looks BUT also have talented enough guards and wings that can create their own offense when needed (I think true bigs suck at this and routinely disappoint in the tournament). Because at some point things will break down.

Our best teams had multiple NBA level guards and wings who could get buckets when our normal stuff wasn’t working. I think that’s why they made the runs they did. And it’s what gives me the most pause about this current iteration. But I can also be convinced I’m completely wrong!

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Very similar to what happened against Ohio … our regular stuff wasn’t working and we didn’t have dudes to put their heads down and get to the rack or just go get a bucket - at least we didn’t until too late when Reece and Casey did it for 3 minutes …

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I do agree but it’s also a big part of why Kihei was so important to that championship team, on the inverse. We had guys who could create their own shots like Jerome or Hunter but those were often pull up jumpers off of the dribble, which would sometimes run cold. Kihei was the only player on that team who could consistently get the ball into the lane against quick hands/feet and find someone else. I’m specifically thinking about the Auburn game, off the top of my head.

The issue with us in the previous three seasons is that we had less shooting/talent and longer, smarter teams, would just let Kihei go and keep their hands up, he wouldn’t be able to get a great shot off inside, and would often get lost within the trees/they wouldn’t help off of other players. It really limited what we could do and kept things congested. It was the same issue with him earlier in the year when we were in Sides and why Reece was having a better go, generally, in that offense (although KC is better, in general, this year).

That doesn’t seem like nearly as much of a thing now, because due to our spacing and looks where the 4 other players can hit threes and all clear out the middle, the opposition really can’t help inside in the same way - so all of he and Reece and Armaan have had a much better go of it just finishing their own opportunities. I don’t expect this to change that much for the remainder of the year aside from when Gardner’s playing and, hopefully, if he is playing, it’s a situation where you can just get him the ball and let him go get a bucket if other things are stalling.

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We ran a lot of the same stuff that year re: Ohio but we didn’t play Tomas very much, so we always had 2-3 dudes (between KC, Reece, and Casey) who weren’t threats to shoot that year. Teams knew that and helped off of all three dramatically, which made everything hard on our 3-5.

This is why I was such a Tomas advocate - but our version of those offenses this year are better suited for it (not necessarily with talent) but in the fact that we’re actually playing lineups where anyone can shoot it and is willing to.

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Yup. If I’m an opposing the coach, this is what I’m doing the next time I play UVA. Until he shows he can repeatedly punish it somehow, having Dunn shoot the three is probably among the most preferable outcomes for a possession where he’s out there.

Now if he can routinely punish it, that takes us to another level. Would be a nightmare to defend against us.

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Another slightly interesting graph

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